Market Trends of us aviation Industry
Ease of restrictions and rising passenger travel are driving air passenger traffic
- US airlines carried 194 million more passengers in 2022 than in 2021, up by 30% Y-o-Y. For the full year 2022, January through December, US airlines carried 853 million passengers, up from 658 million in 2021 and 388 million in 2020. As a result, US carriers recovered 92% of their pre-pandemic levels in total, 88.9% of international traffic, and 92.45% of domestic traffic.
- In terms of the planned capacity levels for the summer 2023 season based on schedules, the number of seats US airlines planned to operate was about 6% higher than during the summer of 2019. About 715.6 million seats were scheduled to operate in the summer of 2023, compared with 673.9 million four years ago, before the pandemic. The big three network carriers saw changes as well, with American Airlines scheduling 1.2% more seats compared to 2019, while Delta Air Lines was down by 0.2%, and United Airlines was up by 3.3%. Southwest Airlines intended to operate 142.5 million seats, up by 16.4% in 2019, and the capacity offered by Spirit Airlines was to be some 42.8% higher with 35.4 million seats.
- The drop in travel demand and the associated losses faced by major airlines have resulted in airlines deferring their expected deliveries, mostly of widebody aircraft, and restructuring their existing fleet through the early retirement of a few aircraft models. For instance, in 2020, Delta Air Lines retired 227 aircraft to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on revenue. Such deferrals impacted the delivery schedules of aircraft OEMs and compelled them to reduce their production rates in 2020 and 2021.
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The increase in defense spending can be attributed to the various geopolitical threats faced by the US
- In 2022, the US accounted for 39% of global defense spending military spending, which increased by USD 877 billion in 2022, or 0.7%. In 2022, the US released the Department of the Air Force budget, which outlined that for FY 2023, the budget request was approximately USD 194.0 billion, a USD 20.2 billion or 11.7% increase from the FY 2022 request. The US DoD proposed USD 276.0 billion in acquisition funds for FY2023 (Procurement and Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E)), which comprised USD 145.9 billion for Procurement and USD 130.1 billion for RDT&E. The financing requested in the budget is a balanced portfolio approach to implementing the National Defense Strategy recommendations.
- Of the USD 276 billion in the request, USD 56.5 billion (USD 16.8 billion for RDT&E and USD 39.6 billion for Procurement) will finance aircraft and related systems, including money for aircraft R&D, aircraft acquisition, initial spares, and aircraft support equipment. The single most expensive defense program, the fifth generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), has USD 11.0 billion in requests for 61 aircraft for the Navy (F-35C), Marine Corps (F-35B & C), and Air Force (F-35A). Funding for FY 2023 also included the purchase of 24 F-15EX, 79 logistics and support aircraft, 119 rotary wing aircraft, and 12 UAV/UAS.
- The US Army's budget request for FY 2022 was USD 173 billion, the Navy's was USD 212 billion, and the Air Force's request was USD 213 billion. The aircraft and related systems category includes the following subgroups: Combat Aircraft (USD 23.0 billion), Cargo Aircraft (USD 5.0 billion), Support Aircraft (USD 1.6 billion), with the remaining budget for UAS, aircraft support, technology development, and aircraft modifications.
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OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT
- The growing e-commerce industry is driving the growth of air freight transportation
- Rising air travel is driving the growth of RPKs in the US
- Fleet modernization and growing modern warfare are the driving factors for the country's active fleet enhancement
- The country's GDP growth is anticipated to be supported by the increasing economic stability
- The increase in inflation may hinder air travelers, but economic growth is expected to have a positive effect on the market
- The rise in the US HNWI population acting as the major growth driver for the market
