United States Dairy Desserts Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

United States Dairy Desserts Market Analysis

The United States Dairy Desserts Market size is estimated at 21.85 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 24.99 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.73% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The United States dairy desserts market is experiencing significant transformation driven by evolving consumer preferences and retail modernization. Supermarkets and hypermarkets continue to dominate the retail landscape, offering extensive product selections and competitive pricing strategies. The retail infrastructure has expanded significantly, with over 150,174 convenience stores operating across the United States as of January 2023, complemented by more than 8,200 warehouse clubs. This robust retail network has enhanced product accessibility and created multiple touchpoints for consumer engagement, while retailers like Costco, Trader Joe's, and Walmart are increasingly adopting omnichannel approaches to integrate online capabilities with brick-and-mortar operations.

Product innovation and premiumization are reshaping the dairy desserts market landscape, with manufacturers focusing on health-conscious offerings and novel ingredients to expand their customer base. The industry has witnessed a surge in premium ice cream products featuring reduced-calorie or no-sugar claims to attract health-conscious consumers. This trend is supported by a strong manufacturing base, with approximately 1.6 million bakers across the United States contributing to product diversity and innovation. The market has seen particular success in ice cream consumption, with per capita consumption reaching 9.87 kg in 2022, indicating strong consumer demand for dairy desserts.

The distribution landscape is evolving with the rise of specialized retail channels and direct-to-consumer models. Independent retail bakeries, numbering approximately 6,700 in 2022, have established themselves as significant players in the dessert industry, offering artisanal and customized dairy dessert products. These specialized outlets are complemented by various retail formats, including warehouse clubs, gas stations, and forecourt merchants, creating a diverse and competitive retail environment. The industry has also witnessed the emergence of innovative distribution models, including click-and-collect services, retail grocery delivery, and concierge services, catering to changing consumer shopping preferences.

The market is characterized by strategic retail positioning and enhanced consumer engagement through multiple channels. Major retailers are investing in dedicated shelf space and refrigeration infrastructure to maintain product quality and enhance the shopping experience. Supermarkets and hypermarkets have implemented strategic product positioning on their large-scale retail shelves to promote impulse purchases, while convenience stores are installing kiosks for customized selections with flavored toppings and fruit combinations. This multi-channel approach, combined with frequent price promotions and bulk purchase options, has created a dynamic dessert market environment that caters to diverse consumer preferences and shopping behaviors.

United States Dairy Desserts Market Trends

The increasing interest on ice cream products to balance their daily energy intake is driving the market

• The per capita consumption of dairy desserts, including ice cream, cheesecakes, and frozen desserts, is increasing yearly in the United States due to their various health benefits, easy availability, and premium ice creams. In 2022, the per capita consumption of dairy desserts increased by 1.2% compared to 2021. Among dairy desserts, consumers majorly consume ice creams in the country. Ice creams are dairy-sourced frozen foods usually consumed as snacks or desserts. Ice cream is considered a good source of calcium and phosphorous, containing 10% daily value per serving. While ice cream is part of a balanced diet, its high palatability increases the likelihood of overconsumption and increased daily energy intake.
• Ice creams with low-calorie (150 calories per serving) or no-sugar options compared to regular ice creams have gained popularity among health-conscious consumers. Due to this, regular ice cream consumption experienced a dip of 9% in 2021, and low-fat ice cream consumption increased by 20%. Given the high demand for ice cream, 9% of all milk produced in the United States is used to make frozen desserts.
• The United States has some strict standards for dairy dessert consumption. Federal regulations or Standards of Identity stipulate that ice creams must contain a minimum of 10% milk fat and 20% total milk solids by weight, and sherbets should have a milk fat content of 1-2% and weigh a minimum of 6 pounds to the gallon. Almost 74% of Americans in the United States eat ice cream at least once a week. Around 84% of Americans purchase ice creams at grocery stores and eat them at home.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Segment Analysis: Product Type

Ice Cream Segment in US Dairy Desserts Market

Ice cream dominates the US dairy desserts market, commanding approximately 89% market share in 2024. This substantial market position is driven by strong consumer preference and widespread availability across various distribution channels. The segment's growth is supported by manufacturers' focus on developing premium and novel ingredients to expand their customer base. Health-conscious consumers are increasingly drawn to premium dairy ice cream that offers reduced-calorie or no-sugar options. The segment's success is further bolstered by manufacturers' emphasis on sustainable packaging solutions and innovative product development, particularly in take-home ice cream varieties that cater to the growing trend of at-home consumption.

Cheesecakes Segment in US Dairy Desserts Market

The cheesecakes segment is projected to experience robust growth in the US dairy desserts market, with an anticipated growth rate of approximately 2% during 2024-2029. This growth trajectory is primarily driven by increasing consumer preference for desserts with better shelf life and storage convenience. The segment's expansion is supported by both major manufacturers and local businesses, with independent bakeries and cafes contributing significantly to market development. Innovation in flavors, particularly strawberry and chocolate variants, along with the introduction of new product varieties, is expected to further accelerate segment growth. The segment's growth is also bolstered by the rising number of retail bakeries and expanding distribution networks across the United States.

Remaining Segments in Product Type

The remaining segments in the US dairy desserts market include frozen dairy desserts, dairy mousse, and other dairy dessert varieties. Frozen desserts have gained traction due to their convenience and variety, particularly among millennial consumers seeking healthier alternatives. The mousses segment maintains its position through innovative flavoring and versatile applications in both direct consumption and as ingredients in other desserts. Other dairy desserts, including dairy custard, flans, fools, and dairy pudding, contribute to market diversity by offering unique taste experiences and catering to specific consumer preferences for traditional and specialty desserts. These segments collectively enhance the market's depth and provide consumers with a wide range of options across different consumption occasions.

Segment Analysis: Distribution Channel

Off-Trade Segment in US Dairy Desserts Market

The off-trade distribution channel dominates the United States dairy desserts market, commanding approximately 95% market share in 2024, primarily driven by the extensive network of supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, and online retail platforms. The segment's strong performance is attributed to competitive pricing strategies, promotional offers, and the convenience of purchasing dairy desserts alongside other grocery items. Supermarkets and hypermarkets lead the off-trade channel with around 66% share, offering dedicated cold storage facilities and a wide assortment of brands under one roof. The emergence of e-commerce and omnichannel retail strategies has further strengthened the off-trade segment, with major retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Target expanding their online presence. The segment is experiencing robust growth with a projected CAGR of nearly 3% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increasing consumer preference for at-home consumption, the rise of premium and innovative dairy dessert products, and the growing popularity of online grocery shopping platforms.

On-Trade Segment in US Dairy Desserts Market

The on-trade distribution channel, while smaller in market share, plays a crucial role in serving dairy desserts through foodservice establishments, restaurants, cafes, and ice cream parlors. This segment caters to consumers seeking immediate consumption and experiential dining, offering specialized and premium dairy dessert options. The channel has adapted to changing consumer preferences by introducing innovative flavors, portion sizes, and presentation styles. Food service operators are increasingly focusing on premium ice cream offerings, artisanal cheesecakes, and customized dessert options to attract customers. The segment has also embraced digital transformation through partnerships with food delivery platforms, enabling consumers to enjoy their favorite dairy desserts at home while maintaining the quality and presentation standards of dine-in experiences.

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