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Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
Market Size (2025) | USD 8.40 Billion |
Market Size (2030) | USD 8.93 Billion |
CAGR (2025 - 2030) | 1.23 % |
Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players![]() *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order |
South Africa Petroleum Market Analysis
The South Africa Petroleum Market size is estimated at USD 8.40 billion in 2025, and is expected to reach USD 8.93 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 1.23% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
South Africa's refined petroleum products industry is undergoing significant structural changes amid evolving energy dynamics and infrastructure challenges. The country's refining system has been notably impacted by underinvestment, with the nation losing approximately half of its oil-processing capacity in recent years due to various factors, including the emergence of cleaner fuel specifications. According to the South African Revenue Service (SARS), the country imported more than 6 billion liters of crude oil in 2022, highlighting its substantial dependence on imports. This transformation has positioned South Africa as one of the largest crude oil importers in the African region, fundamentally reshaping the industry's operational landscape.
The transportation sector continues to be a crucial driver of petroleum product demand, particularly in commercial applications. The sector has shown remarkable resilience and growth, as evidenced by commercial vehicle sales increasing by more than 13% between 2021 and 2022. This growth in the commercial vehicle segment has directly influenced the demand for transportation fuel, especially diesel fuel and gasoline. The average petrol price in South Africa reached 22.27 South African rand per liter in June 2023, reflecting the dynamic nature of fuel pricing in the country and its impact on consumption patterns.
Infrastructure development and modernization efforts are reshaping the industry's capabilities and future outlook. In May 2023, renewable power company Rubicon, in partnership with Audi, announced plans to expand its charging infrastructure across the country, including the addition of 150 new chargers. This development, while primarily focused on electric vehicle infrastructure, signals a broader transition in South Africa's energy landscape. The SA Petroleum Industry Association (SAPIA) has estimated that upgrading all refineries in the nation to meet new environmental standards would require approximately USD 3.9 billion in investment, highlighting the significant capital requirements for modernization.
The industry is witnessing a gradual shift toward cleaner and more sustainable fuel alternatives. In July 2023, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced production cuts of around 1.16 million bpd for member countries, affecting global oil supply dynamics and pricing. This development has particular significance for South Africa's petroleum industry, as the country's manufacturing sector has demonstrated notable growth, with output increasing to approximately 92.46 in 2022. The sector's expansion, coupled with international market dynamics, continues to influence the demand for refined petroleum products while simultaneously driving the exploration of alternative energy sources. Additionally, the focus on downstream petroleum activities is becoming more pronounced as the industry adapts to these changes.
South Africa Petroleum Market Trends
Increasing Consumption of Petroleum Products
The robust growth of South Africa's industrial sector has emerged as a significant driver for hydrocarbon fuels consumption, with various industries demonstrating increased demand for refined petroleum derivatives. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the South African manufacturing output showed remarkable recovery, reaching approximately 92.46 in 2022, a substantial increase from 87.44 in 2020. This industrial growth is further evidenced by new manufacturing investments, such as ALPLA Group's inauguration of a cutting-edge manufacturing facility in Lanseria near Johannesburg in October 2022, which serves as their headquarters for Sub-Saharan Africa operations. The expansion of manufacturing facilities, coupled with the growth in construction projects and industrial activities, has created a consistent demand for motor fuel used in machinery, equipment, and various industrial processes.
The transportation sector stands as another major contributor to the increasing consumption of diesel fuel, particularly in commercial and heavy-duty vehicle segments. The International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers reported that commercial vehicle sales in South Africa grew by more than 13% between 2021 and 2022, indicating a significant expansion in the commercial transportation fleet. This growth in the transportation sector is further supported by the Department of Energy's announcement in May 2023 regarding price reductions of approximately 80 cents per liter in petrol prices and 90 cents per liter in diesel fuel prices, resulting in an excess recovery between USD 0.069 and USD 0.075 per liter. The combination of steady urbanization, expanding transportation infrastructure, and growing population has intensified the demand for refined transportation fuel across various sectors, including private vehicles, commercial fleets, and public transportation systems. Additionally, key industries such as mining, agriculture, and construction heavily rely on gasoline for their daily operations, creating a sustained demand pattern across multiple sectors of the economy.
Segment Analysis: By Refined Products
Automotive Gas Oil/Diesel Segment in South Africa Petroleum Market
The Automotive Gas Oil (AGO)/diesel fuel segment continues to dominate the South African petroleum market, commanding approximately 51% market share in 2024. This substantial market position is primarily driven by the segment's crucial role in the country's transportation and power generation sectors. The segment's prominence is particularly evident in its extensive use across heavy-duty vehicles, mining operations, and agricultural machinery. Additionally, the segment has gained increased significance due to its critical role in power generation, especially as the country deals with electricity shortages. The demand is further bolstered by the growing commercial vehicle sector, with diesel fuel remaining the preferred motor fuel for trucks, buses, and mining equipment due to its higher energy density and superior torque characteristics.
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Liquefied Petroleum Gas Segment in South Africa Petroleum Market
The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) segment is emerging as the most dynamic sector in the South African petroleum market, with an expected growth rate of approximately 13% during the forecast period 2024-2029. This remarkable growth trajectory is supported by several key factors, including the government's implementation of the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Rollout Strategy, which aims to advance the domestic industry and expand LPG applications in diversifying the energy mix. The segment's growth is further accelerated by increasing adoption in both domestic and commercial sectors as consumers seek alternatives to traditional electricity sources. The development of new import and storage terminals in Cape Town and Richards Bay has significantly improved supply infrastructure, while rising electricity costs continue to drive consumers toward LPG as a more cost-effective energy solution.
Remaining Segments in South Africa Petroleum Market
The other segments in the South African petroleum market, including Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Illuminating Paraffin, and fuel oil, each play distinct roles in serving various economic sectors. Premium Motor Spirit remains a crucial component for personal transportation, while kerosene continues to serve essential lighting and heating needs, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas. Fuel oil maintains its significance in industrial applications, particularly in manufacturing processes and marine applications. These segments are experiencing varying levels of transformation as the market adapts to changing environmental regulations, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences, with each segment addressing specific needs across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Additionally, the market is witnessing a growing interest in petroleum derivatives and lubricants as essential petroleum byproducts that support various industrial applications.
South Africa Petroleum Industry Overview
Top Companies in South Africa Petroleum Market
The South African petroleum market is dominated by established players, including TotalEnergies, Shell PLC, Sasol Ltd, Astron Energy, PetroSA, BP PLC, and FFS Refiners. These companies have demonstrated a strong market presence through continuous product innovation, particularly in developing cleaner and more efficient refined petroleum products like low-sulfur diesel fuel and premium-grade gasoline. The industry has witnessed significant operational improvements through the modernization of refineries and storage facilities, alongside digital transformation initiatives to enhance supply chain efficiency. Strategic partnerships and collaborations have become increasingly common, particularly in infrastructure development and retail network expansion. Companies are actively investing in upgrading their facilities to meet new environmental regulations while expanding their retail footprint through service station networks and convenience stores. The market leaders have also shown commitment to sustainability through investments in cleaner fuel technologies and environmental compliance measures.
Market Structure Shows Strong Local Presence
The South African petroleum market exhibits a balanced mix of global energy conglomerates and strong local players, with domestic companies like Sasol and PetroSA maintaining significant market positions alongside international majors like TotalEnergies and Shell. The market structure is characterized by high barriers to entry due to substantial capital requirements for refinery operations and infrastructure development, leading to a relatively consolidated competitive landscape. The industry has witnessed notable merger and acquisition activities, exemplified by the Vivo Energy-Engen merger and Glencore's acquisition of Chevron's South African assets (now Astron Energy), indicating ongoing market consolidation.
Recent years have seen increased collaboration between market players, particularly in sharing infrastructure and distribution networks to optimize operational efficiency. The competitive dynamics are further shaped by the government's role in regulating fuel prices and environmental standards, which influences company strategies and market positioning. Joint ventures and strategic partnerships have become common, especially in developing storage facilities and expanding retail networks, while companies also focus on vertical integration to strengthen their market presence across the downstream petroleum value chain.
Innovation and Sustainability Drive Future Success
Success in the South African petroleum market increasingly depends on companies' ability to adapt to evolving environmental regulations and consumer preferences while maintaining operational efficiency. Market incumbents are focusing on modernizing their infrastructure, particularly in upgrading refineries to meet cleaner fuel standards and expanding storage capabilities to ensure supply security. Companies are also investing in retail network expansion and differentiation through enhanced service offerings and digital solutions, while developing stronger relationships with commercial customers through tailored product solutions and service agreements.
For new entrants and smaller players, success lies in identifying and exploiting niche market segments while building strategic partnerships to overcome infrastructure limitations. The industry's future competitive landscape will be shaped by companies' ability to navigate regulatory changes, particularly regarding environmental standards and fuel specifications. Market players must also address the growing threat of alternative energy sources by diversifying their product portfolios and investing in renewable energy solutions. The ability to maintain strong relationships with key stakeholders, including government authorities and major industrial customers, while demonstrating commitment to environmental sustainability and local economic development, will be crucial for long-term success. Additionally, the focus on petroleum derivatives will play a significant role in adapting to market demands.
South Africa Petroleum Market Leaders
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ENGEN PETROLEUM LTD
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PetroSA
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Sasol Limited
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TotalEnergies SE
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Shell Plc
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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South Africa Petroleum Market News
- February 2023: Astron Energy, a subsidiary of Glencore, has announced plans to reopen the Cape Town oil refinery based on a compelling commercial rationale. The company is fully dedicated to restarting the refinery and is progressing with the required work to achieve this objective.
- November 2022: the Mineral Resources and Energy Ministry of South Africa reached out to Saudi Aramco to explore the possibility of rekindling their interest in constructing a refinery within the country. The proposal entails the establishment of a new crude oil refinery on the East Coast, with a projected capacity of 300,000 barrels per day. The targeted timeline for the refinery to become operational is by 2028. The estimated cost for this venture is approximately USD 10 billion.
South Africa Petroleum Market Report - Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
- 1.1 Scope of the Study
- 1.2 Market Definition
- 1.3 Study Assumptions
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
4. MARKET OVERVIEW
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Refined Petroleum Products Market in USD, till 2029
- 4.3 Recent Trends and Developments
- 4.4 Government Policies and Regulations
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4.5 Market Dynamics
- 4.5.1 Drivers
- 4.5.1.1 Increasing Consumption Of Petroleum Products
- 4.5.2 Restraints
- 4.5.2.1 Fluctuating Crude Oil Prices
- 4.5.2.2 Adoption of Cleaner Alternatives In Transportation
- 4.6 Supply Chain Analysis
- 4.7 PESTLE Analysis
5. MARKET SEGMENTATION
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5.1 Refined Products
- 5.1.1 Illuminating Paraffin
- 5.1.2 Fuel Oil
- 5.1.3 Automotive Gas Oil (AGO)/Diesel
- 5.1.4 Premium Motor Spirit (PMS)
- 5.1.5 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
- 5.1.6 Other Refined Products
6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
- 6.1 Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures, Collaborations, and Agreements
- 6.2 Strategies Adopted by Leading Players
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6.3 Company Profiles
- 6.3.1 TotalEnergies SE
- 6.3.2 ENGEN PETROLEUM LTD.
- 6.3.3 PetroSA
- 6.3.4 Shell PLC
- 6.3.5 Sasol Limited
- 6.3.6 Astron Energy (Pty) Ltd.
- 6.3.7 BP Southern Africa (Pty) Ltd.
- 6.3.8 Chevron Corporation
- *List Not Exhaustive
- 6.4 Market Ranking/Share Analysis**
7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS
- 7.1 Petrochemical Industry Development
South Africa Petroleum Industry Segmentation
Refined petroleum products are fuels and other products derived from crude oil through various refining processes. These products undergo refining and treatment to remove impurities and obtain specific properties suitable for different applications.
South Africa's refined petroleum products market is segmented by refined products. By refined products, the market is segmented into illuminating paraffin, fuel oil, automotive gas oil (AGO), premium motor spirit (PMS), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and other refined products.
The report offers the market size and forecasts for the South African refined petroleum products market in revenue (USD) for all the above segments.
Refined Products | Illuminating Paraffin |
Fuel Oil | |
Automotive Gas Oil (AGO)/Diesel | |
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) | |
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) | |
Other Refined Products |
South Africa Petroleum Market Research Faqs
How big is the South Africa Petroleum Market?
The South Africa Petroleum Market size is expected to reach USD 8.40 billion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 1.23% to reach USD 8.93 billion by 2030.
What is the current South Africa Petroleum Market size?
In 2025, the South Africa Petroleum Market size is expected to reach USD 8.40 billion.
Who are the key players in South Africa Petroleum Market?
ENGEN PETROLEUM LTD, PetroSA, Sasol Limited, TotalEnergies SE and Shell Plc are the major companies operating in the South Africa Petroleum Market.
What years does this South Africa Petroleum Market cover, and what was the market size in 2024?
In 2024, the South Africa Petroleum Market size was estimated at USD 8.30 billion. The report covers the South Africa Petroleum Market historical market size for years: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. The report also forecasts the South Africa Petroleum Market size for years: 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030.
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South Africa Petroleum Market Research
Mordor Intelligence offers a comprehensive analysis of the refined petroleum products industry. We leverage decades of expertise in downstream petroleum research. Our extensive report covers the full spectrum of petroleum derivatives and oil derivatives. This includes the production and distribution of diesel fuel, gasoline, kerosene, and jet fuel. The analysis also encompasses the utilization of petrochemical feedstock, processing of petroleum byproducts, and the manufacturing of petroleum distillates, petroleum coke, and petroleum wax.
Stakeholders gain valuable insights into transportation fuel dynamics, hydrocarbon fuels development, and motor fuel consumption patterns through our detailed report, which is available for download as a PDF. The analysis covers crucial segments, including lubricants, asphalt, naphtha, and petroleum solvents. It provides strategic intelligence for decision-makers across the value chain. Our report delivers actionable data on fuel oil production capabilities and emerging opportunities in South Africa's evolving petroleum sector. This enables businesses to optimize their market positioning and operational efficiency.