North America Online Grocery Delivery Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

North America Online Grocery Delivery Market Trends and Insights

Subscription Services’ Recurring-Revenue Flywheel

Paid memberships such as Walmart+ convert one-off shoppers into predictable, high-frequency customers. Bundled perks—free delivery, fuel discounts, streaming content—reduce churn and lift average order frequency, letting retailers subsidize shipping without eroding margin. Amazon, Safeway and regional grocers alike exploit first-party data from subscriptions to personalize offers and optimize inventory, deepening competitive moats around scale.

SNAP Online Expansion & EBT Digitization

Forty-one million SNAP participants now enjoy digital purchase capability, after the USDA expanded the program to every state in 2024. Kroger, DoorDash and Shipt quickly integrated EBT check-out, unlocking incremental demand from food-insecure households and cutting fraud through chip-enabled cards. California’s statewide chip-and-tap rollout beginning January 2025 accelerates the shift, widening the addressable base for the North America online grocery delivery market. ^{[2]U.S. Department of Agriculture, “USDA Continues Expanding SNAP Online Shopping,” fns.usda.gov}

Same-Day Fulfilment Infrastructure Roll-Out

Amazon serves 40 million U.S. shoppers with same-day delivery, while Walmart lifted <3-hour deliveries by 91% in 2025 through store-based micro-fulfilment. Regional chains such as Save Mart deploy automated dark stores to cut pick times, proving that robotics can level the playing field against national giants. Speed now trumps price once networks hit scale, evidenced by 30% of Walmart customers opting to pay extra for accelerated service.

AI-Powered Demand Forecasting for Perishables

Algorithms ingest sales trends, weather data and promotions to predict fresh-item demand, lowering waste by up to 25% and reducing stockouts. Albertsons’ DC Forecasts tool already automates purchasing across 17 U.S. distribution centers. Independent grocers adopt cloud-based AI suites to remain competitive on availability despite lower volumes, reinforcing data scale as a barrier to entry.

Last-Mile Cost Inflation Outpacing Basket Value

Urban minimum-wage ordinances for gig workers lift delivery costs faster than basket values grow. Platforms must choose between absorbing losses or raising fees, pressuring unit economics in the North America online grocery delivery market. Regulatory scrutiny of fee structures, such as the CFPB’s probe into Walmart, compounds compliance expense.

Driver & Warehouse Labor Shortages

The trucking sector may face a 160,000-driver shortfall by 2030, intensifying wage competition for last-mile couriers and fulfilment staff. Walmart has automated 45% of U.S. eCommerce operations to offset labour scarcity, highlighting automation’s role as both cost lever and strategic hedge.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Retail Delivery Retains Leadership

Retail delivery held 62.38% of the North America online grocery delivery market share in 2025. Consumers favour full-basket shopping that mirrors in-store experiences, driving sustained volume through omnichannel retailers. Quick commerce, though only a minority today, is the fastest-growing slice at a 20.3% CAGR thanks to urban demand for immediacy. Meal-kit providers face margin pressure as HelloFresh anticipates double-digit revenue decline, while supermarkets roll out in-house kits to win back share.

Quick commerce startups like Gopuff launch convenience hubs across major metros, but unit profitability hinges on dense order pools and premium fees. Specialty ethnic and wellness categories gain traction as demographic diversity rises. Pharmacy integration boosts basket size, reinforcing the revenue potential embedded within the North America online grocery delivery market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Delivery Speed: Same-Day Becomes Table Stakes

Same-day options commanded 45.35% of the North America online grocery delivery market size in 2025 and continue to expand as retailers retrofit stores into micro-fulfilment nodes. Instant services promise sub-2-hour turnaround and are projected to grow at 25.9% CAGR. Yet sustainability of ultra-rapid delivery remains in question outside dense cores, where order density fails to absorb high fixed costs.

Next-day delivery survives for bulk pantry staples and value-oriented customers. Platforms now segment service levels, charging premiums for speed while keeping standard tiers price-competitive, allowing refined revenue management across the North America online grocery delivery market.

By Platform Type: Mobile Apps Dominate, Voice Rises

Mobile apps captured 70.22% share in 2025, benefiting from mature UX design and in-app loyalty features. Voice assistants recorded the highest growth trajectory at 17.2% CAGR, with Amazon Alexa enabling hands-free reorders and predictive replenishment that blurs shopping into an ambient experience. Web portals remain indispensable for corporate buyers who need bulk uploads and invoice management.

Augmented-reality shelf browsing and smart-fridge sensors inch closer to mainstream, underscoring how digital interfaces widen the funnel for the North America online grocery delivery industry.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Customer Type: Households Anchor Volume; Corporates Accelerate

Households accounted for 90.35% of 2025 revenues, validating grocery’s historic consumer focus. Corporate and institutional customers, however, are expanding at 13.6% annually. Offices, hospitals and universities increasingly outsource pantry management for employee retention and operational simplicity. Larger baskets and predictable cycles enhance margin, turning B2B an attractive growth avenue inside the North America online grocery delivery market.

Geography Analysis

The United States drives the lion’s share of demand, with the North America online grocery delivery market size in the country mirroring overall regional growth. Robust SNAP participation, same-day networks serving 40 million addresses, and omnichannel leaders such as Walmart (37% eGrocery share) create a high barrier to new entrants. Californian zero-emission mandates push fleets toward electric vans, while the Northeast prioritizes dense-city logistics and the Southeast focuses on suburban pickup models.

Canada contributes a smaller but stable slice, leveraging a CAD 6.5 billion investment by Walmart to expand Supercentres and modernize supply chains. Domestic chains like Loblaw counter U.S. brands through locally tailored assortments and loyalty ecosystems. Click-and-collect remains prominent, reflecting lower urban density outside Toronto and Vancouver.

Mexico offers the steepest curve, propelled by Walmex’s plan to add 1,500 stores and two robotics-equipped DCs by 2030. eCommerce sales rose 25% to USD 34 billion in 2024, yet online penetration in grocery sits in single digits, indicating ample runway. Local sourcing (83% of goods made in Mexico) bolsters supplier networks and keeps pricing competitive, positioning Mexico as a breakout contributor to the North America online grocery delivery market.