North America Frozen Desserts Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

North America Frozen Desserts Market Analysis

The North America Frozen Desserts Market size is estimated at 548.1 million USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 610.7 million USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.18% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The North American frozen desserts industry is experiencing significant transformation driven by evolving retail landscapes and changing consumer preferences. Traditional brick-and-mortar establishments continue to dominate the market, with supermarkets and hypermarkets accounting for approximately 66% of frozen dessert sales in the United States as of 2022. The retail infrastructure continues to expand, with Canada alone hosting over 8,000 supermarkets and hypermarkets in 2023. The convenience store sector has also witnessed remarkable growth, with the United States recording 150,174 operational stores as of January 2023, representing a 1.5% increase from the previous year. This extensive retail network has significantly enhanced product accessibility and consumer reach across the region.

Digital transformation is revolutionizing the frozen desserts market, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and evolving consumer shopping behaviors. In 2022, approximately 95% of the Gen Z population used smartphones, with an average daily usage of 10 hours, facilitating the growth of mobile commerce. Major brands have strategically partnered with prominent online retailers, including Instacart, Amazon Fresh, Walmart, Kroger, and Shipt, to enhance consumer convenience. The digital transformation has particularly resonated with Canadian consumers, where surveys indicate that 22% of consumers now regularly plan their grocery purchases through online channels.

The industry is witnessing a significant shift towards product premiumization and price diversification to cater to various consumer segments. Manufacturers have implemented strategic pricing models, with products ranging from an accessible base price of USD 2.45 to premium offerings at USD 130, ensuring market penetration across different consumer segments. This pricing strategy has been complemented by the introduction of innovative flavors, clean-label products, and healthier variants, particularly targeting health-conscious consumers seeking low-calorie and low-fat alternatives. Notably, the demand for ice cream and other frozen dairy products is on the rise as consumers seek indulgent yet healthier frozen treats.

Distribution networks have evolved to become more sophisticated and consumer-centric, with retailers implementing advanced cold chain solutions and last-mile delivery capabilities. Major retail chains have invested significantly in upgrading their frozen food sections with modern freezers and appealing product displays, enhancing the shopping experience. The integration of artificial intelligence and chatbot features in online retail platforms has further streamlined the purchasing process, while the implementation of sustainable packaging solutions reflects the industry's commitment to environmental responsibility. These advancements in distribution and retail technology have collectively contributed to improved product accessibility and consumer satisfaction.

North America Frozen Desserts Market Trends

The consumption of milk and dairy products is influenced by factors such as population growth, changing dietary preferences, and economic conditions, leading to variations in milk consumption patterns over time

• In 2020, the output of raw milk grew by 2.15%. In 2021, the growth rate of raw milk production was 3.4% higher than in 2019. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) states that the demand for ice cream continued to rebound and grew by 4% Y-o-Y in 2020. In November 2021, milk production in the United States totaled 18.0 billion pounds, down by 0.4% from November 2020. The number of milk cows on US farms was 9.39 million heads, 47,000 less than in November 2020. Production per cow in the United States averaged 1,922 pounds in November 2021, three pounds above November 2020 and 10,000 heads lesser than in October 2021.
• In 2019, the consistency of raw milk production saw a modest increase as raw milk output experienced a minimal increase of 0.36% compared to 2018. The declining raw milk production was due to the closure of milk manufacturing facilities in the area and associated macroeconomic factors like rising milk demand but falling milk prices.
• When the statistics are compared to 2016, the growth rate of milk production in North America increased by 1.83% in 2019. In the United States, big farms managed 55.2% of all herds, and the number of milking cows increased to 1,953 heads. Such substantial dairy enterprises were increasingly found throughout the region's West, Southwest, and Upper Midwest. Similarly, the region gained 1.10% momentum in 2018. The average number of milking cows was 9.41 million heads in 2018, up by 40,000 heads over the previous year. The amount of milk produced per cow reached a record-high 5,781 pounds in 2018.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Segment Analysis: Distribution Channel

Off-trade Segment in North American Frozen Desserts Market

The off-trade segment dominates the North American frozen desserts market, accounting for approximately 97% of the total market share in 2024. This substantial market presence is primarily driven by hypermarkets and supermarkets, which have consistently maintained a strong lead in frozen dessert sales. The proximity factor of these channels, especially in large and developed cities, gives them the added advantage of influencing consumer decisions through a wide variety of product offerings. Supermarkets and hypermarkets account for nearly 66% of frozen dessert sales in terms of value in the United States. The segment is projected to maintain its dominant position and demonstrate strong growth with an expected CAGR of around 2% during 2024-2029. This growth trajectory is supported by the increasing investment by modern grocery stores in online delivery infrastructure, responding to evolving consumer purchasing behaviors. Major brands have strengthened their presence through partnerships with online retailers, including Instacart, Amazon Fresh, Walmart, Kroger, Shipt, Thrive Market, Whole Foods, and FreshDirect, offering popular brands like Van Leeuwen, Great Value, Edwards, and Marie Callender's.

On-trade Segment in North American Frozen Desserts Market

The on-trade segment represents a smaller but significant channel in the North American frozen desserts market, focusing on out-of-home consumption patterns. This segment has been experiencing notable transformation as consumers increasingly shift toward healthier variants featuring reduced or no sugar content. About eight out of every ten US adults intentionally avoid or reduce sugar in their diets, with 16% stating sugar reduction as their primary dietary goal. This trend has created new opportunities for healthier variants of frozen treats across on-trade channels. Popular frozen desserts preferred by US consumers within on-trade channels include fried ice cream, frozen custard, brownie sundaes, ice cream cakes, and ice cream sandwiches. Consumer preferences are significantly influenced by the flavors and nutritional value offered by these products. The segment's growth is further supported by increasing consumer spending on out-of-home food consumption, with food consumed away from home accounting for 55% of total food expenditure.

North America Frozen Desserts Market Geography Segment Analysis

Frozen Desserts Market in United States

The United States dominates the North American frozen desserts landscape, commanding approximately 84% of the market value in 2024. The market is projected to grow at nearly 2% CAGR from 2024 to 2029, positioning it as the fastest-growing country in the region. This robust growth is driven by the increasing consumer preference for premium and innovative frozen dessert products. The trend of healthier living is significantly influencing product development, with manufacturers focusing on natural, organic, and clean-label offerings. The popularity of snacking at home has expanded to the ice cream and frozen dessert sections, particularly in novelty items, with 32% of baby boomers and over 44% of millennials preferring to snack at home. The market's strength is further reinforced by the presence of numerous companies offering gelato and ice cream, with the sector projected to include 9,476 businesses. The millennial generation's growing demand for frozen snacks continues to be a significant driver, especially in the consumption of chilled snacks including yogurt, ice cream, and pudding.

Frozen Desserts Market in Canada

Canada's frozen desserts market demonstrates strong potential, supported by evolving consumer preferences and expanding retail infrastructure. The market is characterized by increasing consumer inclination toward away-from-home snacking and experimental food choices. Ontario and Quebec host the majority of Canada's ice cream and frozen dessert manufacturing facilities, with Ontario alone housing 49 ice cream and frozen dessert production facilities out of 76 frozen food manufacturing facilities. The convenience store segment maintains its position as the second most preferred channel for frozen dessert purchases, benefiting from the fact that seven out of ten Canadians live less than 500 meters from a convenience store. The country's retail landscape is evolving with modern grocery stores investing significantly in online delivery infrastructure. Consumer preferences are increasingly influenced by health consciousness, with retailers offering products at varied price points to cater to different market segments. The market's growth is further supported by the presence of over 25,000 convenience stores and major retail chains providing diverse frozen dessert options.

Frozen Desserts Market in Mexico

Mexico's frozen desserts market exhibits significant potential, characterized by a robust manufacturing base and expanding retail infrastructure. The market structure is notably diverse, with 80% of businesses being small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), fostering continuous expansion and industry training. The consolidation of modern retailers, particularly the explosive rise of convenience stores, has been instrumental in driving frozen dessert sales. These modern retailers are better equipped with freezers and more appealing frozen product displays, providing consumers with expanded choices and improved accessibility. The market's growth is supported by the significant investment in processed food and retail industries, leading to steady increases in demand for dairy goods, including dairy components, fluid milk, and frozen desserts. Supermarkets and hypermarkets serve as the primary distribution channel, with major chains like Walmart, Soriana, Chedraui, and La Comer leading the market. The growing availability of different types and variants of ready-to-eat dairy desserts across retail outlets continues to drive market expansion.

Frozen Desserts Market in Other Countries

The frozen desserts market in other North American countries demonstrates dynamic growth potential, driven by evolving consumer preferences and retail modernization. These markets are characterized by increasing consumer sophistication and growing demand for premium frozen dessert products. The retail landscape in these regions continues to evolve, with modern trade formats gaining prominence and offering wider product varieties. Consumer preferences are increasingly influenced by global trends, with a growing emphasis on health-conscious and innovative offerings. The expansion of convenience store networks and modern retail formats has significantly improved product accessibility. Countries like Guatemala have shown particular promise in the frozen desserts category, with supermarkets, discount retailers, and convenience stores emerging as key marketing channels. The market dynamics in these regions are shaped by the increasing presence of international brands and the growing popularity of various frozen dessert formats, from traditional ice creams to innovative frozen treats.

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