Mexico Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Mexico Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market Trends and Insights

Falling Module & BOS Prices

Global price declines in photovoltaic modules and balance-of-system hardware bolster project economics, especially in northern Mexico, where the resource profile yields high capacity factors. Trina Solar projects 20% growth in Latin American demand, while First Solar’s expanded US capacity lowers logistics costs for Mexican buyers. With 85% of Mexican territory receiving strong irradiation, parity is accelerating for commercial and industrial buyers ^{[1]Staff writers, “Solar Irradiation Map of Mexico,” Intersolar Mexico, intersolar.mx}.

Surge in C&I Net-Metering Rooftop Adoption

Distributed generation limits rose from 0.5 MW to 0.7 MW, spurring corporate rooftop rollouts. Residential interconnection contracts climbed to 367,207 in 2024, and Grupo Bachoco installed 26 MW across 19 states, producing 77,000 MWh annually.

Puerto Peñasco "Gigapark" Catalysing Northern Cluster Build-Outs

The 457.211 MW Puerto Peñasco site generates 1.04 TWh yearly and cuts 1.4 million t of CO₂, anchoring a northern solar corridor that now attracts complementary projects like Puerto Libertad’s 317.5 MW array. Tesla’s Monterrey plant plans to source power from these facilities.

Corporate PPAs from Near-Shoring Manufacturers

Nearshoring drove USD 4.69 billion of EV investments in early 2024, with forecast production of 161,000 units; corporates seek long-term PPAs for renewable supply. USMCA content rules magnify this pull.

Grid-Connection Queue Bottlenecks at CENACE

Over 5 GW of wind and solar remain stalled pending permits, with USD 10 billion in delayed outlays; Decree A/023/2025 suspends new applications until secondary rules are issued. Arbitration claims, such as Fotowatio’s 342 MW San Luis Potosí project, illustrate investor pushback.^{[2]Staff writers, “Investor Arbitration over Mexican Solar,” El País, elpais.com}

54% CFE Dispatch Cap Curbing Private Projects

The Electricity Sector Law compels CFE to retain majority dispatch, restricting merchant projects and pushing independents toward joint ventures or rooftop segments. Clean-energy investment dropped 75% in 2023 to USD 302.43 million.

Segment Analysis

By Grid Type: Off-Grid Surge Challenges On-Grid Hegemony

On-grid systems dominate the market with a 95.30% market share in 2024, reflecting Mexico's centralized electricity infrastructure and utility-scale development priorities under CFE's expanded generation mandate. Off-Grid/Hybrid configurations are expected to accelerate at a 21.25% CAGR through 2025-2030, driven by the need for remote area electrification and industrial applications requiring energy independence from grid instabilities. The dramatic growth differential signals Mexico's energy access democratization, where distributed solar-plus-storage systems address rural electrification gaps while providing backup power solutions for commercial and industrial facilities experiencing grid reliability challenges.

Off-Grid/Hybrid momentum reflects Mexico's geographic diversity and infrastructure limitations, with remote mining operations, agricultural facilities, and rural communities increasingly adopting standalone solar systems enhanced by battery storage integration. The National Development Plan's emphasis on ensuring 99% population energy access by 2030 creates policy support for off-grid solutions in underserved regions where grid extension remains economically unfeasible. Hybrid systems that combine solar energy with diesel generators or battery storage offer operational flexibility, appealing to industrial users seeking energy security amid CENACE grid connection bottlenecks. The segment's acceleration also benefits from declining battery costs and improved energy management systems that enhance off-grid system reliability and economic viability for distributed applications.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User: Residential Renaissance Disrupts Utility Monopoly

Utility-scale installations command a 62.50% market share in 2024, reinforced by CFE's mandate to maintain at least 54% of national electricity generation and major projects, such as Puerto Peñasco's 457.211 MW capacity expansion. Residential emerges as the fastest-growing segment, with an 18.75% CAGR through 2025-2030, driven by enhanced distributed generation regulations that increase project thresholds to 0.7 MW and the stability of net-metering policies under Sheinbaum's administration. Commercial and Industrial segments demonstrate steady adoption patterns driven by nearshoring manufacturing investments and corporate sustainability commitments, while Mining applications benefit from energy independence strategies in remote operational locations.

Residential acceleration reflects Mexico's energy democratization trends, with interconnection contracts expanding from 334,984 in 2023 to 367,207 in 2024 as declining system costs and accessible financing enable household adoption. The National Development Plan's solar panel program for homes, particularly in northern Mexico's high-irradiance regions, provides policy support that accelerates residential deployment while reducing household electricity costs. Utility-scale dominance persists through state-led capacity expansion and regulatory frameworks that favor large-scale development, yet the residential surge indicates a market maturation toward distributed generation models. Commercial and Industrial segments benefit from corporate PPA opportunities driven by nearshoring manufacturers requiring renewable energy sourcing to meet USMCA content requirements and sustainability targets, while Mining operations increasingly adopt solar-plus-storage solutions to reduce operational costs and enhance energy security in remote locations.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Northern Mexico leads solar deployment, accounting for more than 60% of capacity in 2024. Sonora’s Puerto Peñasco hub and the broader Sonora Plan confirm the state as the anchor of export-oriented renewables, aided by its 2,000 kWh/m² annual irradiation. Chihuahua and Coahuila follow closely due to large industrial loads and available land. Nuevo León benefits from nearshoring demand, with corporate PPAs pushing new utility and rooftop builds.

Central Mexico is experiencing steady growth in distributed generation uptake. Mexico City’s urban solar program added large public-building arrays that highlight the technology’s viability in dense settings. Hidalgo and Puebla leverage manufacturing clusters and the new cell fabrication plants to deepen the local supply chain.

Southern states remain underdeveloped. Oaxaca’s high wind resources contrast with the slow progress of solar development, hindered by land disputes and weak transmission infrastructure. Yucatan and Quintana Roo target the hotel sector's self-generation but need interconnection upgrades. The geographic pattern illustrates that the Mexico solar photovoltaic market continues to coalesce around industrial corridors and border trade routes, while policy incentives seek to spread growth southward.