Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Analysis

The Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market size is estimated at 2.36 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 3.2 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.27% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

Mexico's logistics industry is experiencing significant transformation driven by substantial foreign investment and infrastructure development. In early 2024, the country attracted over USD 31 billion in investments through 73 announcements from foreign and domestic companies, demonstrating strong investor confidence in the Mexican logistics sector. This surge in investment has led to the development of new logistics hubs, warehousing facilities, and transportation networks across the country. The Mexican Postal Service (SEPOMEX) maintains a dominant position in the market, covering 96% of the population across 1,967 municipalities and serving a combined population of 29.6 million people as of 2023.

The cross-border logistics landscape has witnessed remarkable growth, with Mexico surpassing China to become the largest exporter to the United States in 2023, with exports reaching USD 475.6 billion. This milestone has been accompanied by significant infrastructure investments, such as APM Terminals' USD 140 million expansion project in Lazaro Cardenas, which aims to double the port's annual capacity to 2.2 million TEUs by 2026. Cross-border freight forwarding between the United States and Mexico reached USD 65.8 billion in November 2023, highlighting the growing importance of efficient logistics networks between the two countries.

Strategic partnerships and consolidation efforts are reshaping the industry's competitive landscape. A notable development is the collaboration between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, announced in January 2024, which will create the "Gemini Cooperation" starting February 2025. This partnership will deploy a fleet of approximately 290 vessels, establishing a comprehensive network connecting major ports across the Americas, including Mexico. Private operators like Grupo Castores have expanded their reach to serve more than 2,100 locations across the Mexican Republic, offering specialized courier services and door-to-door delivery services.

The industry is witnessing significant technological advancement and sustainability initiatives. Major logistics providers are investing in automated sorting facilities, digital tracking systems, and eco-friendly delivery services. Companies are increasingly adopting electric vehicles for last mile delivery, developing smart warehouses, and implementing artificial intelligence-driven routing systems to optimize delivery efficiency. These technological investments are complemented by the development of new distribution centers and the modernization of existing facilities to handle increasing parcel volumes while reducing environmental impact.

Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market Trends

Mexico's transportation and storage sector growing with rise in volume of trade and future development projects

• From January to April 2024, Mexican seaports handled a record 2.95 million TEUs, an 18.2% increase YoY. The Pacific Coast ports managed most of this traffic, with a 19% increase to 2.14 million TEUs. Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas, the largest ports on the Pacific Coast, saw volume increases of 14.5% and 35%, respectively. This growth is expected to impact the sector's contribution to GDP positively. In August 2024, the Salina Cruz LNG JV revealed plans to build and operate a small-scale LNG bunkering and transshipment terminal in Salinas del Márquez, Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico.
• In February 2024, Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced plans to open an AWS infrastructure region in Mexico by early 2025. This new AWS Mexico (Central) Region will provide developers, startups, businesses, government, education, and nonprofits more options for running applications and serving users from data centers in Mexico, allowing them to store data locally. As part of its commitment to Latin America, AWS plans to invest over USD 5 billion in Mexico over the next 15 years. This new region is part of AWS’s ongoing efforts to offer advanced and secure cloud technologies in Mexico.

The Mexican government implemented tax subsidies to tackle inflation, resulting in a USD 4.51 billion loss in 2022

• In April 2024, Pemex directed its trading unit to stop exporting up to 436,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to focus on processing domestic oil at the new Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco. The refinery, which began producing gasoline and diesel in Q1 2024, aims to boost domestic oil processing from 713,300 bpd in 2023 to 1.04 million bpd in 2024. Since July 1, 2024, jet fuel prices have followed the "single price" scheme announced by Pemex in June. Previously, a volume discount program allowed major buyers to lower jet fuel costs through bulk purchases.
• Mexico has been working for 6 years to boost its refinery output and decrease reliance on US oil imports. Progress is evident as Pemex's domestic refineries processed over 1 million bpd of crude in March 2024, the highest in almost 8 years. This increase has led to a 32% rise in gasoline and diesel production and a 25% YoY drop in imports. The surge in refinery output has reduced Mexican crude exports by around 500,000 bpd. Although the government initially stated no significant export cuts, declining shipments and the potential start of the long-delayed 340,000 bpd Olmeca refinery by 2025 could reshape global oil flows.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

• Mexico City is the most populated city accounting for 17% of the total population
• The Mexican economy is driven by a surge in retail store launches and booming e-commerce sector
• Agri-food exports accounted for 8.7% of Mexico’s total exports in 2023, boosting the contribution to the GDP
• Mexico's inflation is impacted by the government's changes in taxes and tariffs
• The e-commerce sector in Mexico is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.93% from 2023 to 2027
• Nearshoring is boosting the growth of the manufacturing industry in the country
• Fresh produce exports to the United States are expected to exceed USD 53 billion by 2030
• Mexico's natural gas imports are expected to double by 2030 due to rising demand
• Mexico government invested USD 394 million in boosting its logistic capabilities in 2023
• Infrastructure projects aimed at developing ports, highways and electric vehicle adoption leading to growth in Mexico

Segment Analysis: By Destination

Domestic Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market

The domestic segment dominates the Mexico CEP market, commanding approximately 78% market share in 2024. This dominance is driven by the robust growth of e-commerce activities within Mexico, with major players like Correos de México (SEPOMEX) covering 98% of the country through its extensive network of 27,000 service points and 2,800 land routes. The segment's strength is further reinforced by companies like Grupo Castores, which provides door-to-door parcel delivery services to more than 2,100 locations across Mexico. The domestic CEP market is particularly energized by the rising trend of grocery delivery in the e-commerce sector, with approximately one-third of e-commerce users in the food and beverages sector ordering groceries weekly. The market's revenue reached USD 4.73 billion in 2023, with grocery delivery projected to reach 23.08 million users by 2025, significantly boosting domestic CEP growth.

International Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market

The international segment is experiencing the fastest growth in the Mexico CEP market, with a projected growth rate of approximately 6% from 2024 to 2029. This growth is primarily driven by increasing cross-border trade, particularly with the United States. The segment's expansion is evidenced by the transborder freight between the United States and Mexico, which amounted to USD 65.8 billion in November 2023, up 5.4% since November 2022. Trucks carried goods worth USD 46.3 billion, followed by rail with USD 7.8 billion, and sea with USD 7.5 billion. The growth is further supported by Mexico's emergence as a key global investment destination, with over USD 31 billion in investment commitments between January and mid-March 2024, nearly matching the USD 36 billion total for all of 2023.

Segment Analysis: By Speed of Delivery

Non-Express Segment in Mexico CEP Market

The Non-Express segment dominates the Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) market, commanding approximately 92% market share in 2024. This substantial market position is driven by the segment's cost-effectiveness and reliability for non-urgent deliveries. The segment has particularly benefited from the growing cross-border trade between Mexico and the United States, with Mexico becoming the largest exporter of goods to the US in 2023. The segment's strength is further reinforced by the expansion of major logistics companies like XPO, which launched XPO Mexico+ in 2024 to enhance its cross-border services, now covering 99% of Mexico's postal codes through seven border crossing points. The non-express segment continues to be the preferred choice for bulk shipments, consolidated cargo, and regular e-commerce deliveries where delivery speed is not the primary concern.

Express Segment in Mexico CEP Market

The express delivery segment in the Mexico CEP market is experiencing rapid growth, projected to expand at approximately 7% through 2029. This growth is being driven by several key developments in 2024, including UPS's strategic acquisition of Estafeta, a major Mexican express delivery firm with a fleet of six aircraft. The segment's expansion is further supported by significant investments in infrastructure and capacity, exemplified by DHL Express's USD 120 million investment to expand its domestic air hub in Mexico City by 30,000 square meters, boosting its processing capacity to 41,000 shipments per hour. The rise of e-commerce platforms demanding faster delivery times, coupled with increasing consumer expectations for rapid delivery services, continues to fuel the segment's growth. Additionally, the express segment is benefiting from Mexico's growing role as a nearshoring destination, with companies requiring reliable and swift logistics solutions for time-sensitive shipments.

Segment Analysis: By Model

Business-to-Consumer (B2C) Segment in Mexico CEP Market

The B2C delivery segment dominates the Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel market, commanding approximately 56% of the total market value in 2024. This segment's prominence is driven by the rapid expansion of e-commerce activities, particularly in the electronics, fashion, and furniture industries. The segment has been experiencing significant growth due to increasing consumer adoption of online shopping platforms and improved digital payment systems. Major e-commerce platforms like Mercado Libre and Amazon have significantly contributed to this growth by expanding their logistics networks and improving delivery capabilities across Mexico. The segment's robust performance is further supported by the rising trend of grocery delivery in the e-commerce sector, with approximately one-third of e-commerce users ordering groceries weekly. Additionally, the segment is projected to maintain strong momentum with an expected growth rate of around 8% from 2024 to 2029, driven by continued digital transformation and increasing internet penetration across Mexico.

Remaining Segments in Model Segmentation

The Business-to-Business (B2B) and Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) segments complete the market structure, each serving distinct needs in Mexico's CEP ecosystem. The B2B delivery segment primarily caters to corporate clients and maintains a strong presence in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale sectors, with companies focusing on generating leads and maintaining longer-term business relationships. The segment has been strengthened by strategic partnerships between major carriers and e-commerce platforms to enhance delivery networks. Meanwhile, the C2C segment has gained traction through the growing popularity of resale and C2C e-commerce marketplaces, especially among younger consumers. Platforms like Mercado Libre and Vopero have become instrumental in facilitating C2C transactions, with the latter expanding its presence across Mexico and Latin America. The implementation of AI tools and enhanced user interfaces has further improved the efficiency of C2C deliveries, making it an increasingly important component of the overall CEP market.

Segment Analysis: By Shipment Weight

Segment Analysis: By Mode of Transport

Road Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market

The road transport segment dominates the Mexico CEP market, accounting for approximately 49% of the total market value in 2024. This dominance is supported by Mexico's extensive road network and the segment's ability to provide comprehensive last mile delivery solutions. The segment's strong performance is driven by the rising cross-border trade, particularly with the United States, as evidenced by Mexico's total trade with the US increasing by 12% year-over-year to USD 64 billion in January 2023. The growth in e-commerce and retail sectors has further strengthened the road segment's position, with cargo truck registrations rising to 11.55 million units by July 2023. Major players are actively expanding their road transport capabilities, with XPO launching its enhanced US-Mexico cross-border service, XPO Mexico+, offering faster shipping and access to more destinations through seven border-crossing points, covering 99% of Mexico's postal codes.

Others Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Market

The Others segment in the Mexico CEP market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by innovative delivery solutions and infrastructure developments. This segment is projected to grow at approximately 8% through 2024-2029, outpacing traditional transport modes. The growth is supported by significant infrastructure investments, including Mexico City's allocation of USD 1.13 billion for 21 priority projects in 2024, focusing on seven key areas including rail infrastructure. The segment's expansion is further bolstered by the development of new warehousing facilities and logistics centers, exemplified by APM Terminals Lazaro Cardenas' USD 140 million Phase II expansion project announced in September 2023, which aims to double the port's annual capacity from 1.1 million TEUs to 2.2 million TEUs by the first quarter of 2026. The integration of multimodal transport solutions and the increasing adoption of sustainable delivery methods are also contributing to this segment's rapid growth.

Remaining Segments in Mode of Transport

The air transport segment plays a crucial role in the Mexico CEP market, particularly for time-sensitive and high-value shipments. This segment is characterized by its ability to provide rapid international connectivity and same day delivery services. Recent developments include the acquisition of Estafeta by UPS, which includes a fleet of six aircraft, enhancing the air transport network's capacity. The air segment's growth is supported by expanding airport infrastructure and increasing cargo handling capabilities across major Mexican airports. The integration of air transport with other modes of delivery is becoming increasingly important, especially for e-commerce fulfillment and cross-border trade, making it an essential component of the overall CEP market infrastructure.

Segment Analysis: By End User Industry

E-commerce Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel Market

The e-commerce segment dominates the Mexico CEP market, commanding approximately 25% market share in 2024, driven by the rapid digitalization of retail and changing consumer preferences. The segment's strong performance is supported by major e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Mercado Libre, which collectively dominate 85% of e-commerce transactions in Mexico. The growth is particularly pronounced in the southeast and central regions of Mexico, where e-commerce activity has exceeded 29% growth. The food and beverages sub-segment within e-commerce has emerged as a particularly dynamic area, with online grocery delivery services gaining significant traction. The segment's robust performance is further bolstered by substantial public and private investments in internet infrastructure, increasing smartphone adoption, and rising acceptance of electronic payment methods, with online shoppers expected to reach 78 million by 2025.

Healthcare Segment in Mexico Courier, Express, and Parcel Market

The healthcare segment is experiencing remarkable growth in the Mexico CEP market, projected to expand at nearly 7% through 2024-2029. This growth is being driven by significant developments in the healthcare infrastructure, including the implementation of the La Clínica es Nuestra program across 23 states with a USD 260 million investment. The program's ambitious scope, covering 99% of the planned 11,947 medical units, is creating substantial demand for specialized delivery services. The segment's expansion is further supported by the growing trend of home-based medical services, with major delivery platforms like Rappi diversifying into healthcare logistics. The integration of online marketplaces and convenience stores into the healthcare delivery ecosystem, coupled with the rising demand for over-the-counter products and medical supplies, is creating new opportunities for CEP providers specializing in healthcare logistics.

Remaining Segments in End User Industry

The Mexico CEP market encompasses several other significant segments including Manufacturing, Primary Industry, Financial Services, and Wholesale and Retail Trade. The manufacturing segment benefits from Mexico's position as a key manufacturing hub, particularly with the ongoing nearshoring trend. The primary industry segment serves the agricultural and mining sectors, with specialized delivery requirements for time-sensitive and valuable cargo. The financial services segment continues to evolve with the digitalization of banking services and the growing demand for secure document delivery. The wholesale and retail trade segment maintains its significance through traditional retail channels while adapting to modern delivery requirements. Each of these segments contributes uniquely to the market's dynamics, with varying requirements for speed, security, and handling specifications.