Market Trends of GRC Cladding Industry
The Surge in the Demand for Commercial Spaces is Driving the Market
According to a recent study, the demand for office space will increase by 12-18% by the end of 2024. The growth is expected to be driven by the current fiscal year, the gradual return of office tenants, and the improving macroeconomic environment.
The recent banking crisis has cast a long shadow on commercial real estate. Unburdened by the regulations of their larger ‘systemically important’ peers, US regional banks have been aggressively lending against commercial property. This raises the specter of a ‘doom-loop’ scenario, where real estate woes and banking failures reinforce each other. This may seem far-fetched, as much of the real estate market continues to outperform. However, this is because neither can bring the other down. For all the talk of alternative lenders and private equity, a pullback on bank lending (which continues to account for 50% to 60% of total commercial real estate lending) is ill-advised, given the massive amounts of debt that will need to be repaid over the next several years. Refinancing has already been challenging, and it is only likely to become more so as credit standards tighten.
While there are many challenges to the US market in terms of cyclicality and structural issues, there are many reasons to be optimistic about office occupancies in other regions. For example, in Europe, average office occupancies recovered to 55% compared to 43% in 2022, and midweek rates are now close to the pre-COVID-19 average (70%). In many Asia-Pacific markets (Seoul, Tokyo, etc.), office attendance is almost back to where it was before the pandemic. In Asia-Pacific, a limited supply of high-quality buildings keeps vacancy low and pushes up rents.
In India, despite a year-over-year decline of 23% in supply in Q1 2023, the supply of commercial spaces was projected to pick up and reach around 47-49 million square feet by Q3 2023. Based on net absorption, the 2023 supply was projected to be above the average of 2017-2019 before the pandemic. In 2024, supply is projected to grow by 22% yearly to 58-60 million square feet. A flight to quality drives demand polarization toward institutional owners and established developer buildings.
North America is Expected to Dominate the Market
Warehouse and distribution, a commercial segment, is in high demand and has increased in recent years to account for more than half of US commercial investment.
As the office market continues to boom, future leasing activity will likely focus on smaller spaces in the most sought-after submarkets and class-A buildings. Big-box stores are consolidating their space and investing in e-commerce offerings and infrastructure.
Healthcare construction spending remained high through 2023, driven by large-scale hospital expansions and outpatient and medical office demand recovery. Large-scale projects were supported by recent changes in demographics, capacity, maintenance needs, and new technologies that affect health services (such as wearables and telehealth).
Large-scale new facilities are expected to increasingly use prefabrication and modularization to streamline project schedules and budgets. In contrast, specialty care and nursing home (SCH) facilities remain heavily constrained by resources, limiting construction activity.
Churches are closing at a faster rate than they are opening, which is creating new opportunities for renovation or repurposing. Investments in infrastructure and transportation will support spending on the construction of amusement and recreational facilities in some of the most competitive markets.
