Market Trends of processed meat Industry
Production across regions is likely to boost a growth in demand
- Beef production grew by 3.3% between 2017 and 2022. Global beef production for 2023 is anticipated to increase by nearly 1% to 59.6 million tons, according to USDA's April 2022 forecast. The drought in Argentina has led to more herd break-ups and increased production by 6% compared to the previous year. Similarly, larger fattening stalls and higher slaughter of cows are expected to boost US production by 1% from April 2022. New Zealand production will increase by 3% as male dairy calves are now marketed for beef.
- Due to the high input costs, EU production is cut by 1% due to lower slaughter numbers and lower weights. Upward revisions in forecasts for New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, and Brazil offset declines in forecasts for Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Strong demand from China is expected to attract supplies from Brazil and Argentina. Australia is likely to benefit from increasing demand from Japan and South Korea. Additionally, strong US demand for processed beef will boost supplies from Australia and New Zealand.
- Beef production is dominated by North America, which produced 32.13% in 2022. Beef production in North America was highly impacted by the increased production costs and increased feed expenses due to dry conditions. The drought also negatively affected locations in western North America. On January 1, 2022, in Canada, beef cow inventories were down by 1% for the fifth consecutive year, reaching 3.5 million heads. The total US cattle inventories were down by 2% compared to last year, reaching 91.9 million heads. South America also caters to global beef production, producing almost 20.12% of global beef production in 2022. The increased beef demand worldwide increased production and productivity gains.
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Production uncertainties across regions are impacting the prices
- The average global price of beef increased by 9.15% between 2017 and 2022, with the United States accounting for the highest price at USD 6.93/kg. Beef has faced strong demand and high prices worldwide, with a visible change in international market dynamics. Local disruptions, such as droughts and increasing consumer demand in individual countries or regions, now exert a greater impact on global trade.
- Key drivers influencing prices in top beef-producing countries include a demand-driven surge in beef prices in the United States. The US beef sector has clearly been in a demand-driven market, witnessing a 40.75% price increase in 2022 compared to 2017. In Brazil, a delay in seasonal rains leads to the production of fewer cattle, forcing processors to raise cattle prices and maintain supply, particularly given demand in the Chinese market. The market faced a reduction in livestock supply across the European Union, resulting in poor profitability of the sector. In June 2023, the retail prices of different forms of beef in the United States were USD 5.028/lb for ground beef, USD 7.020/lb for uncooked beef roasts, and USD 10.359/lb for beef steaks.
- In China, slow growth in domestic beef production, which failed to keep up with local consumption growth prompted by pork-to-beef substitution during the African swine fever outbreak, led to rising beef imports in 2021 and 2022, which, in turn, led to a rise in prices in the country. Australia's supply also impacted the world market, as consecutive years of drought and large herd liquidations resulted in the country's lowest cattle population in 30 years. Australian young stock prices were up by almost 20% in February 2021 compared to the previous year.
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OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT
- Prices in the market are influencing the global trade prices
- Growing poultry demand as a cheaper protein is propelling the prices worldwide
- The prevalence of a variety of infectious diseases in the pig population affects production
- Rising input costs and inflation are leading to a spike in prices
- Australian market is experiencing a tremendous growth in production
- Brazil is anticipated to experience a strong growth in production owing to domestic and international demand
