Embedded SIM (eSIM) Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2020 - 2031 |
|---|---|
| Market Volume (2026) | 0.65 Billion units |
| Market Volume (2031) | 2.12 Billion units |
| Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) | 26.67% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Asia Pacific |
| Largest Market | North America |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. | |
Embedded SIM (eSIM) Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Embedded SIM Market size in terms of shipment volume is projected to be 0.48 Billion units in 2025, 0.65 Billion units in 2026, and reach 2.12 Billion units by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 26.67% from 2026 to 2031.
The sector is rapidly transitioning away from removable subscriber identity modules toward soldered or integrated alternatives. This growth pattern mirrors three converging shifts: premium-tier smartphones eliminating SIM trays, automotive cybersecurity mandates embedding always-connected telematics, and the June 2024 ratification of the GSMA SGP.32 specification that harmonizes remote provisioning for industrial deployments. Demand is further amplified by nationwide 5G standalone rollouts, which enable low-latency network slicing for use cases ranging from remote surgery to autonomous logistics, and by mobile network operators’ quest to cut operating expenditures tied to plastic card logistics. Competitive dynamics favor semiconductor vendors that integrate secure elements at the wafer level, while traditional SIM card manufacturers confront margin compression. Supply-chain trust concerns, consumer awareness gaps in price-sensitive markets, and dual-stack provisioning costs moderate the momentum but have not derailed adoption trajectories.
Key Report Takeaways
- By network type, 4G/LTE led with 52.11% of the embedded SIM (eSIM) market share in 2025, while 5G is forecast to advance at a 26.89% CAGR through 2031.
- By device type, smartphones commanded 60.29% share of the embedded SIM (eSIM) market size in 2025, whereas wearables are projected to post a 26.76% CAGR during 2026-2031.
- By end-user industry, consumer electronics accounted for 44.84% of the embedded SIM (eSIM) market size in 2025, but automotive and transportation is expected to record the fastest 27.11% CAGR to 2031.
- By form factor, MFF2 modules captured 71.07% share in 2025, yet wafer-level chip-scale packages are set to grow at a 29.38% CAGR over the forecast period.
- By provisioning specification, SGP.02 (M2M) represented 67.22% of 2025 shipments, while SGP.32 (IoT) is on track for a 28.12% CAGR through 2031.
- By geography, North America held 39.39% share in 2025, whereas Asia Pacific is projected to expand at a 27.36% CAGR and emerge as the fastest-growing region.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
Global Embedded SIM (eSIM) Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis*
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid 5G Roll-Outs Accelerating eSIM Demand | +5.2% | Global, led by Asia Pacific and Middle East | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Mandates for eCall and UN-R155 Driving Automotive Adoption | +4.8% | Europe and North America, spillover to Asia Pacific | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Apple-Led Smartphone OEM Shift to eSIM-Only Flagships | +6.1% | North America and Europe core, expanding to Asia Pacific | Short term (≤2 years) |
| Telco OPEX Savings Via Remote SIM Provisioning | +3.9% | Global | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Government IoT Security Regulations Favoring Soldered SIMs | +3.4% | Europe, North America, select Asia Pacific markets | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Emergence of GSMA SGP.32 Specification Unlocking Mass-Scale IoT Deployments | +4.7% | Global, industrial hubs in Europe and Asia Pacific | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rapid 5G Roll-Outs Accelerating eSIM Demand
Standalone 5G networks remove latency and throughput constraints that previously limited cellular IoT, enabling devices to switch network slices and roaming partners without physical intervention. China surpassed 1 billion 5G connections in 2024, and carriers there finalized nationwide eSIM enablement by October 2025. Japan achieved 98.4% population coverage in 2024 and targets 99% by 2030, giving enterprises a contiguous national footprint for remote provisioning. In Europe, household coverage reached 94.3% in 2024, creating a launchpad for smart-home and industrial sensors that rely on soldered SIMs.[1]European Commission, “5G Observatory Quarterly Report,” ec.europa.eu Vodafone’s 5G standalone roaming proof-of-concept with A1 and Ericsson in April 2025 showcased frictionless cross-border profile switching.[2]Vodafone Group, “Standalone 5G Roaming Trial Press Release,” vodafone.com As operators commercialize network slicing, enterprises can guarantee quality of service while dynamically selecting carriers, catalyzing shipment growth across industrial gateways and connected vehicles.
Mandates for eCall and UN-R155 Driving Automotive Adoption
The United Nations UN-R155 regulation, compulsory for new vehicle types from July 2024, demands cyber-threat monitoring and secure over-the-air updates, both of which favor tamper-resistant embedded SIM designs. Europe’s eCall directive has already hard-wired cellular emergency connectivity into passenger cars, and new models increasingly adopt soldered eSIMs to meet anti-removal requirements. Continental launched UN-R155-aligned cybersecurity solutions in November 2024 integrating eSIM modules to push security certificates remotely. Thales and Cubic followed in February 2025 with an SGP.32-compliant automotive platform that allows fleet managers to change mobile network operators over the air, lowering roaming charges for cross-border operations thalesgroup.com. As other regions copy the European framework, vehicle production volumes translate directly into multi-year demand for robust eSIM form factors.
Apple-Led Smartphone OEM Shift to eSIM-Only Flagships
Apple removed the SIM tray from iPhone 14-16 U.S. variants, forcing operators to industrialize eSIM activation workflows and signaling to rival brands that premium design now equates to slotless hardware apple.com. Samsung responded by integrating dual-eSIM support in its Galaxy S24 family, while Qualcomm embedded iSIM in Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 to eliminate the discrete secure element qualcomm.com. KPN’s May 2025 one-click eSIM transfer pilot cut iPhone activation steps to a single tap, addressing friction identified by GSMA Intelligence, which found global consumer awareness at only 50% in 2025 kpn.com. The cascading effect is a shorter replacement cycle for legacy SIM cards and accelerated infrastructure upgrades across operator footprints.
Limited Consumer Awareness Outside Premium Handsets
Despite strong traction in affluent regions, GSMA Intelligence reported in March 2025 that only 50 % of global mobile users recognize eSIM terminology, with awareness dropping below 30 % in price-sensitive markets.[3]“Consumer Awareness of eSIM 2025,” gsmaintelligence.com Retail channel incentives still favor plastic SIM card sales, slowing operator marketing in Africa and parts of Asia. Latin America illustrates the gap: 30 carriers launched eSIM by mid-2024, yet only 5 % of smartphone connections used the technology at end-2023. Promotion campaigns such as TIM Brazil’s free trial in late 2023 skewed toward travelers and early adopters, confirming the education challenge. Until low-cost Android devices offer seamless activation and carriers simplify onboarding, mainstream uptake will lag premium tiers.
Restraints Impact Analysis*
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented M2M Entitlement Specifications | -2.1% | Global, high friction in multi-vendor IoT ecosystems | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Limited Consumer Awareness Outside Premium Handsets | -3.3% | Emerging markets across Asia Pacific, Africa, South America | Short term (≤2 years) |
| Supply-Chain Trust Concerns (Tamper and Side-Channel Attacks) | -1.8% | Global, heightened scrutiny in Europe and North America | Long term (≥4 years) |
| Operator Lock-In Worries Among Enterprise IoT Buyers | -1.6% | Global, especially multi-national deployments | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Fragmented M2M Entitlement Specifications
Enterprises managing long-life industrial assets must juggle legacy SGP.02 provisioning stacks alongside newer SGP.32 workflows, inflating integration budgets and expanding the attack surface. Giesecke and Devrient’s April 2025 attainment of full SGP.32 certification required major server re-architecture and cross-vendor test cycles, illustrating the technical lift.[4]SGP.32 Certification Announcement,” gi-de.com Utilities, logistics, and transportation verticals with 15-year device lifecycles are unwilling to abandon installed SGP.02 fleets, forcing dual-stack operations through at least 2035. The resulting complexity dampens near-term shipment growth for SGP.32 modules and partially offsets the embedded SIM (eSIM) market’s otherwise steep expansion curve.
*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.
Segment Analysis
By Network Type: 5G Standalone Cores Reshape Provisioning
4G/LTE retained 52.11% embedded SIM (eSIM) market share in 2025 as a sizable installed base of smartphones and IoT sensors remained anchored to established networks. The 5G segment is, however, projected to scale at a 26.89% CAGR, reflecting operator migration to standalone cores that permit network slicing, ultra-reliable low-latency communication, and carrier aggregation. China’s three national carriers concluded nationwide eSIM rollouts in October 2025, leveraging 5G architecture to deliver dynamic profile switching for autonomous trucking corridors. In Japan and the European Union, combined 5G population coverage above 94% enables real-time over-the-air provisioning for connected factories and smart-city grids.
As millimeter-wave densification advances, urban private networks will adopt embedded SIM (eSIM) market size modules that can toggle between public and dedicated slices without downtime. Operators in rural markets continue to deploy NB-IoT and LTE-M for low-bandwidth sensors, creating a dual-network strategy that favors multi-mode eSIM chipsets. Over the forecast horizon, 4G will migrate into maintenance mode, while 5G’s contribution to embedded SIM (eSIM) market revenues surges, propelled by industrial automation, remote health care, and immersive media applications that demand deterministic latency guarantees.
By Device Type: Wearables Outpace Smartphones in Growth Velocity
Smartphones accounted for 60.29% of 2025 unit shipments, yet the category’s mid-single-digit growth contrasts with the 26.76% CAGR expected for wearables through 2031. Continuous-glucose monitors, cardiac implants, and fall-detection pendants from Medtronic and Abbott rely on always-on cellular links to cloud dashboards, removing the need for handset tethering. Embedded SIM solutions eliminate ingress points for moisture, dust, and tampering, critical to medical and fitness devices worn 24 hours a day. Laptops and tablets exploit instant-connect financing models that bundle data plans at point of sale, while M2M modules enable asset-tracking beacons and smart-meter retrofits.
Wearables also benefit from wafer-level chip-scale packaging that halves energy draw, extending battery life for thin form factors. Samsung’s eSIM v3.0 specification introduces multiple enabled profiles, supporting personal and corporate lines on a single watch, while Qualcomm-Thales iSIM platforms place the secure element inside the system-on-chip. As health insurers reimburse remote monitoring and enterprises embrace field-force digitization, embedded SIM (eSIM) market size shipments for wearables are set to eclipse tablets by mid-forecast, solidifying the segment as the second-largest contributor after smartphones.
By End-User Industry: Automotive Electrification Drives Connectivity Mandates
Consumer electronics dominated with 44.84% embedded SIM (eSIM) market size share in 2025. Regulatory tailwinds now position automotive and transportation to grow at 27.11% CAGR, fueled by UN-R155 cybersecurity compliance, eCall requirements, and the rise of electric drivetrains that necessitate constant software updates. GSMA SGP.32-compliant platforms from Thales enable fleet managers to switch carriers remotely, optimizing roaming expenses for cross-border logistics. Industrial and manufacturing verticals adopt eSIM to underpin predictive-maintenance sensors and robotic control cells where downtime costs can exceed USD 100,000 per hour.
Logistics and asset tracking lean on ultra-low-power eSIM modules that combine GPS and cellular radios, offering unified visibility across multimodal supply chains. Utilities and energy providers embed secure elements in smart meters to safeguard revenue collection and comply with cyber-resilience legislation. Healthcare deployments span remote diagnostics and medication adherence devices, benefiting from hardware-anchored encryption that meets HIPAA and GDPR mandates. By 2031, automotive is poised to overtake consumer electronics in absolute shipment volumes, making the sector a major force within the embedded SIM (eSIM) market.
By Form Factor: Wafer-Level Integration Compresses Bill of Materials
MFF2 packages secured 71.07% of 2025 volume because their vibration tolerance and extended temperature range suit automotive and industrial use cases. Wafer-level chip-scale packages, however, are forecast to expand at a 29.38% CAGR as smartphones and wearables chase thinner profiles and longer battery life. Infineon’s OPTIGA Connect OC1230 delivers 50% lower power draw through 28 nm CSP construction.
Plug-in accessories target retrofit scenarios; Digi International’s December 2025 SGP.32 dongle offers firmware-based upgrades for legacy field devices, side-stepping complete hardware replacement. iSIM architectures, validated by Qualcomm-Thales on Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, further condense components, freeing board space and reducing per-unit cost by USD 1-2 in mass-market smartphones. Over the forecast window, wafer-level and iSIM formats will capture incremental share in consumer electronics, while MFF2 remains entrenched in safety-critical transport and industrial control installations.
By Provisioning Specification: SGP.32 Resolves IoT Fragmentation
SGP.02 (M2M) held 67.22% of 2025 shipments because installed industrial fleets rely on legacy provisioning servers. SGP.32 (IoT) is projected to grow at a 28.12% CAGR as enterprises seek a unified, multi-operator workflow. IDEMIA’s August 2025 certification spurred more than 40 pilots across utilities and logistics idemia.com. AT&T and Thales launched commercial SGP.32 services in October 2025, allowing zero-touch profile swaps that keep smart-city assets online.
SGP.02 persists in legacy industrial fleets due to multi-year certification cycles, but its lack of multi-operator interoperability drives higher OPEX. T-Mobile’s joint solution with Thales and SIMPL converges SGP.22 and SGP.32 under one platform, simplifying mixed-device estates. As procurement cycles align with depreciated capex schedules, SGP.32-capable shipments will overtake SGP.02 by volume before 2029, anchoring the embedded SIM (eSIM) market to a unified provisioning framework.
Geography Analysis
North America held 39.39% of 2025 unit volumes on the back of Apple’s eSIM-only iPhone lineup and enterprise IoT rollouts in healthcare and logistics. Operators leverage matured 5G standalone cores to monetize premium data plans and remotely provision industrial gateways across oilfields and rail networks. Consumer adoption benefits from widespread carrier marketing that bundles travel eSIM packages into unlimited plans.
Asia Pacific is set to become the fastest-expanding region at a 27.36% CAGR to 2031. China’s October 2025 nationwide rollout covers more than 1 billion 5G connections, enabling low-cost Android makers to eliminate SIM trays and free board space for larger batteries. India followed with Tata Communications and BSNL launching pan-India eSIM in October 2025, targeting both smartphone users and smart-meter deployments in rural electrification programs. Japan and South Korea, already near-saturated in 5G coverage, deploy eSIM in connected cars, wearable payment devices, and smart factories.
Europe enjoys regulatory pull, with 94.3% household 5G coverage and mandates such as eCall and UN-R155 that embed connectivity into vehicle homologation. The Radio Equipment Directive coming into force in August 2025 raises cybersecurity bars, nudging device makers toward soldered eSIM designs. Middle East adoption accelerates, with stc’s national platform in Saudi Arabia cutting SIM logistics and MENA connections forecast to reach 135 million by 2028. Africa remains at a nascent stage except for pilot programs in South Africa and Nigeria, where urban operators test eSIM to serve expatriates and enterprise fleets.
South America shows rising momentum as 30 operators in 14 nations offer eSIM services. Penetration jumps from 5% in 2023 to an expected 75% of smartphone connections by 2030, aided by roaming-friendly tourist markets in Brazil and Argentina. Consumer awareness campaigns, combined with lower-cost eSIM-ready handsets, are expected to unlock latent demand across prepaid segments.
Regulatory Landscape
Embedded SIM (eSIM) deployments are anchored in GSMA eUICC and Remote SIM Provisioning standards, with industrial IoT moving toward the SGP.3x family after the June 2024 ratification of SGP.32. GSMA maintained active updates through 2026, including SGP.21 v2.7 (April 2026) and SGP.31/SGP.32 v1.3 updates (May 2026), alongside the GSMA eSIM compliance framework (SAS-SM/SAS-UP) that underpins secure entitlement-server and eUICC operations across markets.
National frameworks are adding local compliance layers on top of the GSMA baseline. India has been tightening M2M/eSIM governance, including the May 2025 Standards, Conformity Assessment and Certification Rules, 2025, and June 2025 Department of Telecommunications instructions on embedded SIM usage for M2M communications that reference GSMA SAS-SM certification expectations for SM-SR sites and interoperability requirements. Singapore moved toward formalizing eUICC requirements via IMDA public consultation on draft technical specifications (Issue 1, 2026), which points to more explicit conformance and security criteria for eSIM components used in public networks.
Value Chain Analysis
The embedded SIM (eSIM) value chain spans (i) secure silicon, SIM OS, and packaging suppliers (for example, STMicroelectronics and Infineon) that provide eUICC-capable hardware in form factors such as MFF2 and wafer-level CSP, (ii) eUICC and remote provisioning infrastructure vendors (for example, Thales, Giesecke+Devrient, and IDEMIA) that supply certified eUICC products along with entitlement and remote-SIM-provisioning platforms, and (iii) OEMs across smartphones, wearables, automotive, and industrial modules that integrate eSIM at design-in and rely on certification to secure operator acceptance. Downstream, mobile network operators run consumer activation and enterprise onboarding, while aggregators and connectivity intermediaries (for example, 1GLOBAL and Cubic Telecom) bundle multi-operator reach and simplify contracting for travel and IoT deployments.
Standards and assurance programs shape bottlenecks and handoffs across the chain. The shift from legacy M2M stacks toward SGP.32 has increased the role of orchestration and entitlement tooling for multi-operator IoT estates, while GSMA specification refreshes in 2026 (SGP.21 v2.7 in April 2026, and SGP.31/SGP.32 v1.3 in May 2026) reinforced interoperability requirements that feed back into device certification and platform upgrades. On the security side, GSMA-linked assurance and industry certification pathways (including Common Criteria-based approaches highlighted by GSMA in 2025) raise the value of audited manufacturing and provisioning operations as OEMs pursue build-once, deploy-anywhere hardware SKUs with profile installation deferred until after manufacturing.
Competitive Landscape
The embedded SIM (eSIM) market is witnessing a competitive tussle among semiconductor suppliers, provisioning-platform vendors, and mobile network operators. Giesecke and Devrient, capitalizing on their early-mover advantage, achieved SGP.32 compliance in April 2025. This strategic move garnered them over 20 design wins and more than 40 pilot projects. Meanwhile, Infineon is carving a niche by emphasizing energy efficiency, utilizing 28 nm wafer-level secure elements to prolong the battery life of wearables. Thales, on the other hand, is banking on a holistic approach, integrating chip fabrication, entitlement servers, and forging alliances with carriers, to achieve a remarkable feat of 23 million installations in connected vehicles.
System-on-chip giants are making waves in the industry: Qualcomm and Thales have successfully validated the inaugural GSMA-certified iSIM on the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3. Juniper Research projects a meteoric rise in iSIM shipments, forecasting an ascent from 800,000 units in 2024 to a staggering 210 million by 2028. This surge is poised to draw volume away from traditional discrete secure element suppliers. As operators increasingly gravitate towards vendor-agnostic entitlement servers, valued for their cost-effectiveness and streamlined audit trails in line with cybersecurity mandates, a wave of platform consolidation appears imminent.
Start-ups are carving out niches in specialized sectors like precision agriculture, cold-chain monitoring, and micro-mobility. However, as the GSMA tightens its certification processes, these newcomers are encountering escalating technical challenges. Looking ahead, the landscape is set for strategic mergers between semiconductor firms and platform vendors, aiming to forge cohesive hardware-software ecosystems. Simultaneously, traditional card manufacturers are at a crossroads, contemplating a shift towards value-added services or a complete exit from the arena.
Embedded SIM (eSIM) Industry Leaders
Giesecke+Devrient GmbH
STMicroelectronics N.V.
Infineon Technologies AG
Thales Group
IDEMIA France SAS
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Market Opportunities and Future Outlook
SGP.32-driven IoT standardization creates room for growth in large, mixed-fleet enterprise environments where SGP.02 estates and newer IoT deployments must coexist. That dynamic supports demand for dual-stack enablement, orchestration, and migration toolchains rather than single-spec implementations. Active standard maintenance in 2026 (GSMA updates to SGP.31/SGP.32 v1.3 in May 2026 and SGP.21 v2.7 in April 2026) supports procurement and certification roadmaps for utilities, logistics, industrial gateways, and connected-vehicle programs that require multi-operator operability and security-assured provisioning.
Commercial rollouts and named deployments also point to near-term implementation opportunities beyond premium smartphones. Telenor IoT began delivering standardized SGP.32 eSIM solutions in April 2026, and operator-side workflow industrialization is continuing alongside device-side platform moves, including Giesecke+Devrient introducing an AWS-powered cloud remote eSIM provisioning approach in February 2026 and Thales expanding eSIM enablement into adjacent IoT endpoints through partnerships (for example, with Verifone for payment terminals in March 2026). These steps broaden the addressable scope for eSIM platform vendors and semiconductor suppliers in design-ins where enterprises prioritize global SKUs, reduced logistics for SIM handling, and tighter security and compliance alignment for always-connected assets.
Recent Industry Developments
- March 2026: Thales partnered with Verifone to embed eSIM technology into next-generation payment terminals to support global connectivity management. The partnership broadens eSIM adoption into regulated, high-uptime IoT endpoints where remote provisioning reduces deployment friction across geographies.
- February 2026: Giesecke+Devrient collaborated with Amazon Web Services to launch a cloud-based remote eSIM provisioning approach for consumer and IoT deployments. The partnership highlights the shift toward scalable, cloud-native entitlement and provisioning stacks that can be deployed faster across multiple regions and operator environments.
- October 2025: China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom completed nationwide eSIM enablement, extending coverage across China’s large 5G user base. This lowered activation barriers for eSIM-capable devices and strengthened the foundation for mass-market OEM rollouts that remove physical SIM trays.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definition and Coverage
For this study, the embedded SIM (eSIM) market covers the value created when GSMA-compliant eUICC is embedded inside a device and is enabled through remote SIM provisioning, along with the related profile management software used to activate and update subscriptions.
Scope exclusions: We exclude revenues from removable SIM cards, standalone M2M connectivity contracts, and pure connectivity data plans.
Segmentation Overview
- Overall Market Estimates
- Total Market Value
- By Network Type
- 5G
- 4G/LTE
- NB-IoT / LTE-M
- By Device Type
- Smartphones
- Tablets and Laptops
- Wearables
- M2M/IoT Modules
- By End-User Industry
- Consumer Electronics
- Automotive and Transportation
- Industrial and Manufacturing
- Logistics and Asset Tracking
- Energy and Utilities
- Healthcare and Wearables
- By Form Factor
- MFF2
- Wafer-Level CSP
- Plug-In eSIM
- By Provisioning Specification
- SGP.02 (M2M)
- SGP.22 (Consumer)
- SGP.32 (IoT)
- By Geography
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
- South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Rest of South America
- Europe
- United Kingdom
- Germany
- France
- Italy
- Spain
- Rest of Europe
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Japan
- South Korea
- India
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
- Middle East
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- Israel
- Rest of Middle East
- Africa
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Rest of Africa
- North America
Data Sources, Market Sizing, and Validation
Desk Research
Desk work started with aligning the definition to public standards and adoption signals so the market boundary stays consistent across regions. Sources used for this include materials such as GSMA specifications and GSMA Intelligence publications, ITU indicators for mobile subscriptions, OECD digital economy updates, and national telecom regulator releases that track SIM registration and eSIM enablement policies.
To make the model practical, we also reviewed company annual reports, investor presentations, and reputable press coverage on eSIM only device launches, plus public customs or trade statistics where device and module flows help explain demand direction. In selected cases, we used paid subscriptions where available for company financials and intelligence, patent lookups, and import export shipment level checks to sanity test device momentum and supply chain shifts. These examples are not exhaustive, and many other public sources were also referenced for data collection, validation, and clarification.
Primary Interviews and Surveys
Primary work focused on filling gaps that desk sources do not fully explain, such as attach rates for eSIM by device category, provisioning workflow costs, and near-term ASP movement for eUICC and related software. We spoke with a mix of ecosystem participants, including mobile operators, device and module supply chain roles, and enterprise and IoT buying stakeholders. Coverage was balanced across key demand regions so the assumptions could be checked more than once.
Distribution of primary research fieldwork respondents
Distribution of primary research fieldwork respondents
| Company type | Respondent position | Region |
|---|---|---|
| Top tier: 38% | CXOs: 17% | APAC: 53% |
| Mid tier: 40% | Functional/Unit leaders: 38% | EMEA: 29% |
| Smaller Players: 22% | Managers: 45% | Americas: 18% |
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
Sizing used top-down and bottom-up together, but the build was led by a top-down demand pool that reconstructs eSIM value from addressable device and module shipments, eSIM penetration by device type, and a price stack that reflects eUICC content plus profile management software. Once the total was formed, it was corroborated with selective bottom-up approximations, such as sampling supplier level revenue disclosures where available, channel checks on typical pricing, and ASP times volume cross-checks for major device categories.
Key inputs that shaped the model include eSIM capable device shipment trends, the share of devices shipped as eSIM only versus dual SIM, regional operator readiness for remote provisioning, average profiles per device in travel and IoT use cases, and the price direction for eUICC and provisioning software as scale rises. For forecasting, scenario analysis was used because adoption depends on policy timing, operator activation behavior, and device launch cycles, and then expert consensus from interviews was applied to keep the scenarios realistic. Where bottom-up signals were incomplete, gaps were handled by using conservative penetration ranges and revisiting them when multiple independent interviews supported the same shift.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs were checked against independent signals, including publicly visible eSIM connection forecasts, device launch pipelines, and regional activation readiness indicators that help explain whether the implied adoption curve is realistic. We also ran variance checks by device category and region so unusually high revenue per unit or sudden share jumps were flagged, reviewed, and either corrected or clearly justified.
Before sign-off, the work moves through multi-step analyst reviews, and fresh follow-ups are triggered when an assumption changes totals more than expected or when new policy or product events occur. Reports are refreshed annually, and interim updates are made for material developments, followed by a final pre-delivery pass so clients receive the latest updated view.
Mordor Intelligence's Embedded Sim Market Size Versus Other Published Estimates
Published eSIM market sizes often do not match each other because the underlying scope and the unit of measurement are not consistent across studies. Differences usually come from what is counted as eSIM revenue, which device groups are included, and whether the update cadence keeps up with fast device mix changes.
Shipment based adoption signals and operator provisioning readiness checks are the evidence that anchors Mordor Intelligence at USD 11.29 B (2025), because the revenue is only counted when eUICC is embedded and remote provisioning software is relevant to activation and profile updates (not when it is only a connectivity plan discussion). Other figures can diverge when they focus on a narrower device set, apply a flat ASP curve across regions, or rely on older penetration assumptions that do not reflect recent eSIM only launches and policy shifts.
Benchmark comparison
| Source | Market Size | Gaps in Research Methodology |
|---|---|---|
| Mordor Intelligence | USD 11.29 B (2025) | |
| Global Consultancy A | USD 1.46 B (2024) | Uses a narrower scope that mainly counts smartphone related value, and it tends to exclude IoT modules and connected vehicle embedded eUICC content, which reduces the addressable device pool. |
| Trade Journal B | USD 11.93 B (2024) | Leans on earlier device mix and penetration assumptions for the base year, and the pricing stack is not always reworked for software related profile management value and region level ASP movement. |
The spread across the table is mostly explained by scope boundaries and how quickly adoption and pricing assumptions are refreshed. By tying the total to observable device and module volume signals and then validating pricing and activation assumptions through interviews, the estimate stays traceable to a repeatable set of steps that buyers can follow and stress test.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the projected volume of embedded SIM units by 2031?
Shipments are expected to reach 2.12 billion units by 2031, growing at a 26.27% CAGR from 2026 levels.
Which device category will post the fastest volume growth through 2031?
Wearables are forecast to expand at a 26.76% CAGR, outpacing smartphones, laptops, and tablets.
Why are automotive manufacturers rapidly adopting eSIM?
UN-R155 cybersecurity rules and eCall emergency requirements mandate tamper-resistant, always-connected modules, making embedded SIM the preferred solution.
How does SGP.32 differ from earlier provisioning standards?
SGP.32 unifies IoT remote provisioning, supports multi-operator interoperability, and lowers integration costs compared with legacy SGP.02 machine-to-machine frameworks.
Which regions will contribute most to new eSIM activations?
Asia Pacific will lead growth, driven by China’s nationwide rollout and India’s pan-regional launches, while North America and Europe sustain steady volume additions.
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