Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Size
| Study Period | 2020 - 2029 |
| Base Year For Estimation | 2023 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2024 - 2029 |
| Historical Data Period | 2020 - 2022 |
| CAGR | 9.74 % |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order |
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis
The commercial real estate market of Turkey is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.74% during the forecast period of 2022-2027.
With annual GDP growth in 2020 recorded as 1.8%, Turkey has become one of the few economies recording growth against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic.
This positive climate continued into 2021; the Turkish economy exceeded expectations by growing by 7.4% in Q1 2021, 22.0% in Q2 2021, and 7.4% in Q3 2021 annually. While base effects lifted recorded growth rates in annual terms, the expansion in the Turkish economy was mainly driven by household spending.
The existing shopping center supply reached 14 million sq m in 453 centers in Turkey as of 2021 year-end. Thanks to the rebound in retailer leasing activities, shopping center openings accelerated rapidly, especially in October 2021. Currently, approximately 883k sq m GLA in 28 centers is under construction, adding up to c. 14.9 million sq m supply by the end of 2024.
In the office sector, while the existing Grade-A office supply in Istanbul reached 5.8 million sq m GLA as of year-end 2021, there is circa 1.6 million sq m office supply under construction, and it is expected that the total Grade-A office supply will outpace 7.4 million sq m GLA by the end of 2023. The majority of the future supply consists of the Istanbul International Finance Centre project located in Ataşehir, which is planned to be completed by the end of 2022.
For the hospitality sector, during H2 2021, the hotel market benefited from the ease in restrictions and the reopening of international flights, as well as from postponed holidays, as expected. The rebound in the hotel sector was especially vibrant in the summer season, primarily for the riviera region of Turkey.
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Trends
This section covers the major market trends shaping the Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market according to our research experts:
Improvement in Hospitality Sector
The hospitality industry has been in decline throughout the pandemic but has shown improvement in 2021 with the removal of travel restrictions and the increase in vaccinations. Tourism parameters have improved significantly compared to last year but lagged behind the pre-pandemic period. The occupancy average increased by 45% and was recorded as 52% across Turkey in 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, where the occupancy averaged 55% in Istanbul 2021. ADR (Average Daily Rate) averaged EUR 82 and EUR 91 in Turkey and Istanbul, respectively, and recorded increases year-on-year in 2021. Average occupancy and ADR in Europe recorded 43% and EUR 104, respectively, in 2021, whereas Turkey's ADR recorded behind in the same period.
The total number of hotel facilities reached 4,511 overall in Turkey in 2021, and five-star hotels have a market share of 16.7%. Istanbul has reached 671 graded hotels, where five-star hotels represented 18% in 2021.
At the end of the first half of 2021, there was a significant increase in passenger demand with the lifting of travel restrictions. In 2020, the total passenger count being 128.5 million overall in Turkey increased by 57.4% compared to the year before. Total passenger arrivals in Istanbul via Istanbul Airport recorded 37.2 million, and Sabiha Gokcen Airport reached 25 million, significantly increased by 59% and 47% y/y in 2021, respectively.
Growth in Retail Sector in Second Half of 2021
The first half of 2021 was a year in which the country felt the impact of the pandemic on the economy more prominently and was stagnant due to curfews. In the retail sector's second half of the year, with the increase in the number of people vaccinated, the removal of weekend restrictions, the introduction of normal working hours, and the return to face-to-face education in September, signs of recovery started to show. The new variants of the Covid-19 virus and the increase in the number of cases, which came to the agenda in the last quarter of the year, caused concern but did not affect the physical retail as much as expected.
The recovery path at a slower pace indicated a partial rebound before the second wave curfew in November. Therefore the turnover index significantly increased by 80.2% in November 2021 compared to the year before, given the results of the shopping center retail data provided by AYD/ Akademetre. All category sales rose y/y in November 2021. Apparel and shoes recorded increases of 89% and 102.9%, respectively. Apparel decreased by approx. 4% and the shoe category increased slightly by 0.8% m/m. The highest and significant increase was again by 136% in the food & beverage category, while increased with a lower acceleration compared to other categories was technology with 28.7% in this quarter. In November 2021, when new Covid-19 variants emerged, and the number of cases increased, there was a 6.25% decrease in the footfall index compared to the previous month. However, an increase of 38.9% was recorded when compared to the same month of the previous year.
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Industry Overview
The commercial real estate market in Turkey is fragmented and has a highly competitive environment in order to capture limited demand between the property owners. The market has wonderful opportunities for Turkish and foreign real estate developers and investors.
Turkish property developers established their international offices to attract prospective foreign investors and promote their projects. Investors from Qatar, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkic Republic, the United Arab Emirates, and Azerbaijan established their keen interest in Turkish projects.
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Leaders
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Ağaoğlu Group
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Artaş Group
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Ege Yapı
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Calik holding
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Rönesans Holding
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market News
October 2021: Stolthaven Terminals and Rönesans Holding have signed a partnership agreement to jointly develop a new greenfield terminal in Ceyhan, Adana, Turkey, providing storage and handling services to the Ceyhan Petrochemical Industrial Zone, which is being developed by Rönesans Holding.
July 2021: Turkey Government has signed a contract with with Calık Holding for the construction of 2 new cutting-edge gas turbines for the Oil Refinery Complex in Turkmenbashi and reconstruction of the power plant. According to the contract, the project will be delivered completely ready for operation in 18 months.
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Report - Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions
1.2 Scope of the Study
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4. MARKET INSIGHTS
4.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment
4.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demographic Insights
4.3 Government Initiatives and Regulatory Aspects for Commercial Real Estate Sector
4.4 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects
4.5 Insights into Interest Rate Regime for General Economy and Real Estate Lending
4.6 Insights into Rental Yields in Commercial Real Estate Segment
4.7 Insights into Capital Market Penetration and REIT Presence in Commercial Real Estate
4.8 Insights into Public-Private Partnerships in Commercial Real Estate
4.9 Insights into Real Estate Tech and Startups Active in Real Estate Segment (Broking, Social Media, Facility Management, and Property Management)
4.10 Impact of Covid-19 on the market
5. MARKET DYNAMICS
5.1 Drivers
5.2 Restraints
5.3 Opportunities
5.4 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
5.4.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
5.4.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
5.4.3 Threat of New Entrants
5.4.4 Threat of Substitutes
5.4.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
6. MARKET SEGMENTATION
6.1 By Type
6.1.1 Offices
6.1.2 Retail
6.1.3 Industrial
6.1.4 Logistics
6.1.5 Multi-family
6.1.6 Hospitality
6.2 By Key Cities
6.2.1 Istanbul
6.2.2 Bursa
6.2.3 Antalya
7. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
7.1 Market Concentration
7.2 Company Profiles
7.2.1 Agaoglu Group
7.2.2 Artas Group
7.2.3 Ege Yapi
7.2.4 Calik holding
7.2.5 Ronesans Holding
7.2.6 PEGA
7.2.7 IC Ibrahim Cecen Investment Holding
7.2.8 Emlak Konut GYO
7.2.9 Ozak GYO
7.2.10 Kiler GYO*
- *List Not Exhaustive
8. FUTURE OF THE MARKET AND ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS
9. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
9.1 Direct Investments
9.2 Indirect Investments
10. DISCLAIMER
11. ABOUT US
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Industry Segmentation
The commercial real estate market in Turkey report provides insights into the current economic scenario and consumer sentiment, commercial real estate buying trends - socioeconomic and demographic insights, government initiatives, regulatory aspects for the commercial real estate sector, insights into existing and upcoming projects, insights into interest rate regime for general economy and real estate lending, insights into rental yields in the commercial real estate segment, insights into capital market penetration and REIT presence in commercial real estate, insights into public-private partnerships in commercial real estate, insights into real estate tech and startups active in real estate segment (broking, social media, facility management, property management), and market dynamics, among others.
The report on the commercial real estate market in Turkey is segmented by type (office, retail, industrial, logistics, hospitality, and multi-family) and key cities (Istanbul, Bursa, and Antalya). The report offers market size and forecasts for the commercial real estate market in Turkey in value (USD billion) for all the above segments. The report also offers an in-depth analysis of the short-term and long-term impact of Covid-19 on the market. Additionally, the report provides company profiles to understand the competitive landscape of the market.
| By Type | |
| Offices | |
| Retail | |
| Industrial | |
| Logistics | |
| Multi-family | |
| Hospitality |
| By Key Cities | |
| Istanbul | |
| Bursa | |
| Antalya |
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market Research FAQs
What is the current Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market size?
The Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market is projected to register a CAGR of 9.74% during the forecast period (2024-2029)
Who are the key players in Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market?
Ağaoğlu Group, Artaş Group, Ege Yapı, Calik holding and Rönesans Holding are the major companies operating in the Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market.
What years does this Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market cover?
The report covers the Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market historical market size for years: 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The report also forecasts the Turkey Commercial Real Estate Market size for years: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029.
Turkey Commercial Real Estate Industry Report
Statistics for the 2024 Turkey Commercial Real Estate market share, size and revenue growth rate, created by Mordor Intelligence™ Industry Reports. Turkey Commercial Real Estate analysis includes a market forecast outlook 2029 and historical overview. Get a sample of this industry analysis as a free report PDF download.
