South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Size (2024 - 2029)

The South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market is projected to experience significant growth over the forecast period, driven by evolving work practices and urban housing demands. The shift towards hybrid workforces has led to an increase in vacant commercial properties, prompting a trend of repurposing these spaces for affordable residential housing. This transformation not only addresses housing needs but also alleviates pressure on government services and reduces commuting challenges. Despite economic pressures on the broader real estate market, certain segments, such as student housing, continue to yield strong returns, indicating a resilient demand in specific areas.

Market Size of South Africa Commercial Real Estate Industry

South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Summary
Study Period 2020 - 2029
Base Year For Estimation 2023
Market Size (2024) USD 9.28 Billion
Market Size (2029) USD 13.49 Billion
CAGR (2024 - 2029) 7.63 %
Market Concentration Low

Major Players

South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Major Players

*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order

Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Analysis

The South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is estimated at USD 9.28 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 13.49 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 7.63% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

The office market in Durban moved from the traditional central business district (CBD) to the uMhlanga, La Lucia, and Ballito neighborhoods in recent years, as per experts. Its commercial real estate market has had to contend with harsh externalities over the past few years, above the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased operational risk for businesses based in the country. Nevertheless, the BPO industry has been given an advantageous environment due to its robust labor market and relative affordability in the office industry.

On the other side, most urban centers are demanding affordable residential housing. Since many of these pre-existing commercial buildings have services, repurposing them is generally simple and inexpensive. This tendency is already well established in many cities, and as more offices fall empty in the upcoming months and years, it will pick up speed.

Aside from saving money, repurposing a building also eases the burden on governments, which are already under strain to provide services and utilities. The fact that these converted buildings are already situated within cities further reduces the need for inhabitants to commute, decreasing traffic and the strain on public transportation infrastructure.

While the global economy is putting pressure on investors in most domestic real estate market segments, Makhosini Ndlovu, product head at FNB Commercial Property Finance, claims that those investing in student housing continue to see strong returns.

Yields remain very good for some universities, such as the University of Cape Town (UCT). Regardless of how many approvals are given for the construction of student housing near UCT, domestic and international demand for study opportunities will likely maintain demand for housing in the upcoming years.

Commercial Real Estate South Africa Industry Segmentation

Commercial real estate (CRE) is only used for business-related activities or to offer a workspace, as opposed to being utilized as a residence, which would fall under the residential real estate market. Most frequently, renters lease commercial real estate to conduct businesses that generate cash. A complete background analysis of the South African commercial real estate market, including the assessment of the economy and contribution of sectors in the economy, market overview, market size estimation for key segments, and emerging trends in the market segments, market dynamics, and geographical trends, and COVID-19 impact, is covered in the report.

The South African commercial real estate market is segmented by type (office, retail, industrial and logistics, and hospitality) and key cities (Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth, and Other Key Cities). The report offers market sizes and forecasts for all the above segments in value (USD).

By Type
Office
Retail
Industrial and Logistics
Hospitality
By Key City
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Durban
Port Elizabeth
Other Key Cities
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South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Size Summary

The South African commercial real estate market is undergoing significant transformation, driven by shifts in work practices and economic conditions. The sector, which faced challenges pre-pandemic, is now experiencing a resurgence in demand for flexible and repurposed spaces. The trend of converting vacant commercial properties into affordable residential housing is gaining momentum, particularly in urban centers where demand for housing remains high. This repurposing not only provides cost savings but also alleviates pressure on government services and reduces commuting needs, contributing to more sustainable urban living. Despite the global economic pressures, certain segments like student housing continue to offer attractive returns, with strong demand persisting near major universities.

The market landscape is characterized by rising vacancy rates in office spaces, particularly in Johannesburg, as companies downsize their physical footprints in favor of hybrid work models. This has led to a softening of office demand dynamics, although opportunities for favorable long-term lease arrangements exist for qualifying tenants. In contrast, the industrial property sector has shown resilience, with Cape Town experiencing an increase in prime rents, highlighting its appeal to investors. The South African commercial real estate market is fragmented, with both local and global players actively investing in property reinvention rather than new developments. Notable players include Growthpoint Properties, Amdec Group, and Pam Golding Properties, among others. The market's performance is further bolstered by the outperformance of South Africa's REIT sector, attracting interest from investors seeking robust returns.

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South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Size - Table of Contents

  1. 1. MARKET INSIGHTS AND DYNAMICS

    1. 1.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment

    2. 1.2 Commercial Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demographic Insights

    3. 1.3 Government Initiatives and Regulatory Aspects for the Commercial Real Estate Market

    4. 1.4 Insights into Existing and Upcoming Projects

    5. 1.5 Insights into Interest Rate Regime for General Economy, and Real Estate Lending

    6. 1.6 Insights into Rental Yields in Commercial Real Estate Market

    7. 1.7 Insights into Capital Market Penetration and REIT Presence in Commercial Real Estate

    8. 1.8 Insights into Public-private Partnerships in Commercial Real Estate

    9. 1.9 Insights into Real Estate Tech and Startups Active in Real Estate Segment (Broking, Social Media, Facility Management, and Property Management)

    10. 1.10 Impact of COVID-19 on the Market

    11. 1.11 Market Dynamics

      1. 1.11.1 Drivers

        1. 1.11.1.1 Urbanization and Population Growth

        2. 1.11.1.2 Foreign Direct Investments

      2. 1.11.2 Restraints

        1. 1.11.2.1 Economic Uncertainty

        2. 1.11.2.2 Regulatory Environment

      3. 1.11.3 Opportunities

        1. 1.11.3.1 Urban Renewal and Development

        2. 1.11.3.2 Retail and Shopping Centers

    12. 1.12 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis

      1. 1.12.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers

      2. 1.12.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers/Buyers

      3. 1.12.3 Threat of New Entrants

      4. 1.12.4 Threat of Substitute Products

      5. 1.12.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

  2. 2. MARKET SEGMENTATION

    1. 2.1 By Type

      1. 2.1.1 Office

      2. 2.1.2 Retail

      3. 2.1.3 Industrial and Logistics

      4. 2.1.4 Hospitality

    2. 2.2 By Key City

      1. 2.2.1 Johannesburg

      2. 2.2.2 Cape Town

      3. 2.2.3 Durban

      4. 2.2.4 Port Elizabeth

      5. 2.2.5 Other Key Cities

South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market Size FAQs

The South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is expected to reach USD 9.28 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 7.63% to reach USD 13.49 billion by 2029.

In 2024, the South Africa Commercial Real Estate Market size is expected to reach USD 9.28 billion.

Commercial Real Estate South Africa Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2024 - 2029)