China Dairy Market Size and Share

China Dairy Market Summary
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China Dairy Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

China dairy market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 77.11 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 74.18 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 93.62 billion, growing at 3.95% CAGR over 2026-2031. Urban income growth, increasing health awareness, and consumer preference for premium products are reshaping the China dairy market, shifting focus from volume expansion to value-driven innovation. The implementation of stricter national standards, including GB 19644-2024 for milk powder and GB 19302-2025 for fermented milk, along with an improved cold-chain ecosystem, has elevated product quality standards and consolidated market share among compliant manufacturers. The demand for protein-rich, probiotic, and organic products has increased, with tier-1 consumers accepting 15-25% price premiums while tier-3/4 households continue to drive volume growth. E-commerce penetration has expanded market reach into inland regions, contributing to market growth. While competition from plant-based alternatives and increasing compliance costs present challenges, they have not impacted the market's growth trajectory.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By product type, milk led with a 50.22% share in 2025 in the China dairy market; cheese is projected to expand at a 8.58% CAGR through 2031.
  • By distribution channel, off-trade captured 76.63% of the China dairy market size in 2025, while on-trade is forecast to grow at 6.62% CAGR through 2031

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Milk Dominance Meets Cheese Innovation

Milk accounted for a significant market share of 50.22% in 2025, driven by the availability of premium fresh milk and Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) products tailored to urban consumer preferences. The demand for organic milk has grown considerably, as health-conscious consumers increasingly opt for pesticide-free and hormone-free choices in their diets. Despite these products being priced 40-50% higher than conventional milk alternatives, their popularity continues to rise due to the perceived health benefits and growing awareness of sustainable farming practices.

The flavored milk segment has expanded its appeal beyond traditional breakfast consumption, with the introduction of chocolate, strawberry, and seasonal fruit varieties that cater to children and teenagers. Additionally, the market has observed increased usage of condensed milk, fueled by the growing popularity of home baking activities. Powdered milk, also known as dried milk, continues to play a critical role in infant nutrition due to its long shelf life and nutritional value. It also serves as a reliable option for emergency supply needs, ensuring availability during unforeseen circumstances.

China Dairy Market: Market Share by Product Type, 2025
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By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Leadership Amid On-Trade Revival

Off-trade channels hold a dominant 76.63% market share in 2025, including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms with temperature-controlled delivery capabilities. Supermarkets and hypermarkets have increased performance through private label dairy products, offering 15-20% cost savings while maintaining quality through manufacturer partnerships. The expansion of convenience stores in tier-2 and tier-3 cities has improved dairy product accessibility, with round-the-clock operations and locations near residential areas driving both impulse purchases and emergency replenishment.

E-commerce growth has accelerated through live-streaming commerce and subscription delivery services, ensuring product availability and reducing shopping complexity for consumers. On-trade channels have achieved 6.62% growth as restaurants, cafes, and food service establishments incorporate dairy ingredients into menu items and beverages. The increase in coffee shops has created additional consumption opportunities for milk-based beverages, with specialty coffee trends increasing demand for high-quality milk that improves flavor and texture. Restaurants have expanded dairy usage beyond traditional cooking applications to include cheese-focused dishes, yogurt-based sauces, and dairy desserts at premium price points.

China Dairy Market: Market Share by Distribution Channel, 2025
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Geography Analysis

China's dairy market demonstrates distinct regional consumption patterns based on economic development levels, cultural preferences, and infrastructure capabilities. Tier-1 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, account for 35% of market value despite representing only 12% of the population. This concentration stems from higher disposable incomes, Western lifestyle adoption, and premium product accessibility through established retail networks. These metropolitan markets show the strongest growth in specialty cheese, organic dairy products, and imported brands, which command higher prices than domestic alternatives. The mature cold chain infrastructure in coastal regions enables broader product variety and maintains extended shelf-life, supporting premium segment expansion and reducing distribution waste.

Tier-2 and tier-3 cities contribute 45% of market volume through middle-class expansion and accelerating urbanization that promotes dairy consumption among former rural populations. Regional preferences show distinct patterns, with northern provinces favoring milk and yogurt products, while southern regions prefer dairy desserts and flavored milk variants. E-commerce platforms have expanded access to premium dairy products in smaller cities through temperature-controlled logistics, overcoming traditional distribution constraints. Government nutrition education programs highlighting dairy health benefits for child development and elderly bone health have generated consistent demand growth across demographic segments.

Rural markets offer significant growth potential, with per-capita dairy consumption 40% below urban levels despite government initiatives promoting nutritional improvement and agricultural modernization. Infrastructure developments, including rural road improvements and cold storage facility expansion, have increased product availability and quality consistency in remote areas. Local dairy processing facilities have emerged to serve regional markets with fresh products, reducing transportation costs and supporting local agricultural communities through direct farmer partnerships.

Competitive Landscape

The Chinese dairy market is predominantly led by domestic companies such as Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy, which together command a significant share of the market. International players, including Danone, Nestlé, and Fonterra, have also established a foothold by offering premium products and forming strategic partnerships. The industry has moved beyond basic price competition, with companies now focusing on supply chain optimization, vertical integration of operations, and the development of digital platforms. These platforms enable direct consumer engagement and provide real-time insights into consumer preferences, allowing companies to tailor their offerings more effectively and respond to market demands efficiently.

Companies in the industry are increasingly adopting technological innovations to enhance their operations and maintain competitiveness. New entrants have successfully penetrated the market by targeting specialized segments, particularly in plant-based alternatives and premium organic products. These areas present challenges for larger companies due to their existing infrastructure, which may not be as adaptable to niche demands. Additionally, the market shows significant potential for products addressing specific health conditions, personalized nutrition solutions, and environmentally friendly packaging. These trends resonate strongly with younger consumers, who are increasingly prioritizing sustainability and health-conscious choices in their purchasing decisions. The growing focus on these specialized areas reflects the evolving preferences of the consumer base and the industry's efforts to align with these changes.

The industry has experienced a 25% annual growth in patents related to dairy processing technology. Companies are focusing on extending product shelf life, improving nutritional content, and enhancing production efficiency. Compliance with food safety standards such as ISO 22000 (International Organization for Standardization 22000) and HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) has become a fundamental requirement. This shift benefits established players who already meet these standards while creating entry barriers for smaller companies that may lack the resources to achieve compliance. Furthermore, the adoption of these standards ensures consistent product quality and safety, which are critical factors in building consumer trust and loyalty in the competitive dairy market.

China Dairy Industry Leaders

  1. Yili Group

  2. Mengniu Dairy

  3. Bright Dairy & Food

  4. Junlebao Dairy Group

  5. Danone SA

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
China Dairy Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • October 2025: SGS and Yili Group have formed a strategic partnership to advance dairy industry quality and sustainability, focusing on global production standards, testing, and zero-carbon initiatives. The collaboration includes integrated solutions across certification, digital systems, and training to reinforce Yili’s reputation for reliability and innovation in China’s dairy sector.
  • September 2025: Sanyuan introduced "Sanyuan Beijing Fresh Milk" as its first major product in the low-temperature segment, marking its entry into Beijing's fresh milk market. The launch represents a strategic expansion of Sanyuan's product portfolio and demonstrates the company's commitment to meeting the growing consumer demand for fresh dairy products in the region.
  • June 2025: New Hope Dairy has announced plans to enter China’s fast-growing beverage market with modern milk-based drinks, aiming to tap new revenue streams amid declining milk sales. The company will focus on chilled products featuring popular flavors and weight management, targeting shifting consumer preferences.

Table of Contents for China Dairy Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising demand for high-protein, fortified, and functional dairy products
    • 4.2.2 Growth in health consciousness and focus on nutrition among Chinese consumers
    • 4.2.3 Expanding assortment of lactose-free and plant-based dairy alternatives
    • 4.2.4 Expansion of premium dairy segments, including specialty cheeses and yogurts
    • 4.2.5 Strong research and development investments in product shelf-life, taste, and packaging improvement
    • 4.2.6 Enhanced marketing: celebrity influence, social media campaigns, and nutrition education
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Rising competition from plant-based and nut-based “milk” products
    • 4.3.2 Stringent regulatory standards leading to frequent product recalls
    • 4.3.3 Health concerns over added sugar, fats, and additives in flavored dairy
    • 4.3.4 Traceability challenges in multi-tiered distribution networks
  • 4.4 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
  • 4.6 Porter’s Five Forces
    • 4.6.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.6.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.6.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE AND VOLUME)

  • 5.1 By Product Type
    • 5.1.1 Butter
    • 5.1.1.1 Salted Butter
    • 5.1.1.2 Unsalted Butter
    • 5.1.2 Cheese
    • 5.1.2.1 Natural Cheese
    • 5.1.2.1.1 Cheddar
    • 5.1.2.1.2 Cottage
    • 5.1.2.1.3 Ricotta
    • 5.1.2.1.4 Parmesan
    • 5.1.2.1.5 Others
    • 5.1.2.2 Processed Cheese
    • 5.1.3 Cream
    • 5.1.3.1 Fresh Cream
    • 5.1.3.2 Cooking Cream
    • 5.1.3.3 Whippng Cream
    • 5.1.3.4 Others
    • 5.1.4 Dairy Desserts
    • 5.1.4.1 Ice Cream
    • 5.1.4.2 Cheesecakes
    • 5.1.4.3 Frozen Desserts
    • 5.1.4.4 Others
    • 5.1.5 Milk
    • 5.1.5.1 Condensed milk
    • 5.1.5.2 Flavored Milk
    • 5.1.5.3 Fresh Milk
    • 5.1.5.4 UHT Milk
    • 5.1.5.5 Powdered Milk
    • 5.1.6 Yogurt
    • 5.1.6.1 Drinkable
    • 5.1.6.2 Spoonable
    • 5.1.7 Sour Milk Drinks
  • 5.2 By Distribution Channel
    • 5.2.1 On-trade
    • 5.2.2 Off-trade
    • 5.2.2.1 Convenience Stores
    • 5.2.2.2 Specialist Retailers
    • 5.2.2.3 Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
    • 5.2.2.4 Online Retail
    • 5.2.2.5 Others

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials (if available), Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Yili Group
    • 6.4.2 Mengniu Dairy
    • 6.4.3 Bright Dairy & Food
    • 6.4.4 Junlebao Dairy Group
    • 6.4.5 Danone SA
    • 6.4.6 Nestlé SA
    • 6.4.7 Feihe Limited
    • 6.4.8 New Hope Group
    • 6.4.9 Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited
    • 6.4.10 MiaoKe Lando
    • 6.4.11 Want Want Holdings Limited
    • 6.4.12 Panda Dairy Group Co. Ltd
    • 6.4.13 VV Group Co. Ltd
    • 6.4.14 Blue Diamond Growers
    • 6.4.15 Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd
    • 6.4.16 Shengmu Dairy
    • 6.4.17 Beijing Sanyuan Foods
    • 6.4.18 Yantang Dairy Co. Ltd
    • 6.4.19 Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy
    • 6.4.20 Adopt-a-Cow Dairy Co.

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

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China Dairy Market Report Scope

Butter, Cheese, Cream, Dairy Desserts, Milk, Yogurt are covered as segments by Category. Off-Trade, On-Trade are covered as segments by Distribution Channel.
By Product Type
ButterSalted Butter
Unsalted Butter
CheeseNatural CheeseCheddar
Cottage
Ricotta
Parmesan
Others
Processed Cheese
CreamFresh Cream
Cooking Cream
Whippng Cream
Others
Dairy DessertsIce Cream
Cheesecakes
Frozen Desserts
Others
MilkCondensed milk
Flavored Milk
Fresh Milk
UHT Milk
Powdered Milk
YogurtDrinkable
Spoonable
Sour Milk Drinks
By Distribution Channel
On-trade
Off-tradeConvenience Stores
Specialist Retailers
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
Online Retail
Others
By Product TypeButterSalted Butter
Unsalted Butter
CheeseNatural CheeseCheddar
Cottage
Ricotta
Parmesan
Others
Processed Cheese
CreamFresh Cream
Cooking Cream
Whippng Cream
Others
Dairy DessertsIce Cream
Cheesecakes
Frozen Desserts
Others
MilkCondensed milk
Flavored Milk
Fresh Milk
UHT Milk
Powdered Milk
YogurtDrinkable
Spoonable
Sour Milk Drinks
By Distribution ChannelOn-trade
Off-tradeConvenience Stores
Specialist Retailers
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
Online Retail
Others
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Market Definition

  • Butter - Butter is a yellow-to-white solid emulsion of fat globules, water, and inorganic salts produced by churning the cream from cows’ milk
  • Dairy - Dairy product include milk and any of the foods made from milk, including butter, cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and condensed and dried milk.
  • Frozen Desserts - Frozen dairy dessert means and includes products containing milk or cream and other ingredients which are frozen or semi-frozen prior to consumption, such as ice milk or sherbet, including frozen dairy desserts for special dietary purposes, and sorbet
  • Sour Milk Drinks - Sour milk is thick, curdled milk, with a sour taste, obtained from the fermentation of milk. Sour milk drinks such as kefir, laban, buttermilk have been considered in the study
KeywordDefinition
Cultured ButterCultured butter is prepared by having the raw butter go through chemical processing and has been added with certain emulsifiers and foreign ingredients.
Uncultured ButterThis type of butter is one which has not been processed in any way
Natural CheeseThe type of cheese in its most natural form. It is made from natural and simple products and ingredients, including fresh and natural salts, natural colors, enzymes, and high-quality milk.
Processed CheeseProcessed cheese undergoes the same processes as natural cheese; however, it requires more steps and many different forms of ingredients. Making processed cheese involves melting natural cheese, emulsifying it, and adding preservatives and other artificial ingredients or colorings.
Single CreamSingle cream contains around 18% fat. It’s a single layer of cream that appears over boiled milk.
Double CreamDouble cream contains 48% fat, more than double the amount of fat of single cream. It’s heavier and thicker than single cream
Whipping CreamThis has a much higher fat percentage than single cream (36%). Used to top cakes, pies, and puddings and as a thickener for sauces, soups, and fillings.
Frozen DessertsDesserts that are meant to be eaten in frozen condition. E.g., sherbets, sorbets, frozen yogurts
UHT Milk (Ultra-high temperature milk)Milk heated at a very high temperature. Ultra-high-temperature processing (UHT) of milk involves heating for 1–8 sec at 135–154°C. which kills the spore-forming pathogenic microorganism, resulting in a product with a shelf-life of several months.
Non-dairy butter/Plant-based butterButter made from plant-derived oil such as coconut, palm, etc.
Non-dairy YogurtYogurt made from typically made from nuts, like almonds, cashews, coconuts, and even other foods like soybeans, plantains, oats, and peas
On-tradeIt refers to restaurants, QSRs, and bars.
Off-tradeIt refers to supermarkets, hypermarkets, on-line channels, etc.
Neufchatel cheeseOne of the oldest kinds of cheese in France. It is a soft, slightly crumbly, mold-ripened, bloomy-rind cheese made in the Neufchâtel-en-Bray region of Normandy.
FlexitarianIt refers to a consumer preferring a semi-vegetarian diet, that is centered on plant foods with limited or occasional inclusion of meat.
Lactose IntoleranceLactose intolerance is a reaction in digestive system to lactose, the sugar in milk. It causes uncomfortable symptoms in response to the consumption of dairy products.
Cream CheeseCream cheese is a soft and creamy fresh cheese with a tangy taste made from milk and cream.
SorbetsSorbet is a frozen dessert made using ice combined with fruit juice, fruit purée, or other ingredients, such as wine, liqueur, or honey.
SherbetSherbet is a sweetened frozen dessert made with fruit and some sort of dairy product such as milk or cream.
Shelf stableFoods that can be safely stored at room temperature, or "on the shelf," for at least one year and do not have to be cooked or refrigerated to eat safely.
DSDDirect Store Delivery is the process in supply chain management wherein the product is delivered from manufacturing plant directly to the retailer.
OU KosherOrthodox Union Kosher is a kosher certification agency based in New York City.
GelatoGelato is a frozen creamy dessert made with milk, heavy cream and sugar.
Grass-fed CowsGrass-fed cows are allowed to graze in pastures, where they eat a variety of grasses and clover.
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Research Methodology

Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all our reports.

  • Step-1: Identify Key Variables: In order to build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step 1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set, and the model is built on the basis of these variables.​
  • Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the forecast years are in nominal terms. Inflation is not a part of the pricing, and the average selling price (ASP) is kept constant throughout the forecast period for each country.​
  • Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables, and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.​
  • Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms
research-methodology
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