China Almond Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

China Almond Market Trends and Insights

Health-Oriented Snacking and Functional Nutrition

Health-oriented snacking is driving almond consumption in China as consumers increasingly prefer nutritious, convenient, and portion-controlled foods for everyday use rather than seasonal gifting. Branded manufacturers are expanding roasted, flavored, and mixed-nut offerings through modern retail and e-commerce channels, supporting higher demand for imported almond kernels. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (2025), China had more than 338,000 bakery outlets as of April 2025, reflecting the growing use of almonds in healthy snacks and value-added food products beyond traditional consumption^{[1]Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, “Baking Ingredients Market Update 2025,” apps.fas.usda.gov.}. This trend continues to support sustained growth in almond imports and packaged nut sales.

Expansion of Plant-Based Dairy Alternatives

Plant-based dairy alternatives are creating new growth opportunities for the China almond market as consumers increasingly seek lactose-free and health-focused beverage options. Almond milk is gaining wider adoption in cafés, bakeries, and food manufacturing, driving demand for almond flour, paste, and blanched kernels as functional ingredients. According to Olam Food Ingredients (2024), the company opened its fifth Customer Solutions Center in Shanghai to support Chinese food manufacturers with application development for bakery, beverage, and dairy-alternative products. The expansion reflects rising industry demand for value-added almond ingredients and continued innovation across China's plant-based food market.

E-Commerce and Live-Commerce Penetration

E-commerce and live-commerce are accelerating almond consumption in China by improving product visibility, consumer engagement, and repeat purchasing across digital retail platforms. Online channels enable brands to introduce new flavors, packaging formats, and promotional campaigns while reaching consumers beyond traditional retail networks. According to the Three Squirrels Co., Ltd. 2025 Annual Report, online sales generated RMB 7.176 billion (USD 1.06 billion), accounting for 70.43% of the company's total revenue in 2025, highlighting the growing importance of digital commerce in nut product sales. This trend continues to strengthen demand for imported almonds across China's branded snack market.

Zero-Tariff and Supply-Diversification Benefits for Australian Almonds

Growing bakery, confectionery, and café applications are strengthening industrial demand for almonds in China, as manufacturers increasingly use almond flour, sliced almonds, paste, and butter in premium baked goods, desserts, chocolates, and specialty beverages. Food processors require a consistent supply of value-added almond ingredients, thereby encouraging imports beyond whole kernels. According to the Almond Board of Australia (2025), Australian almond exports to China increased by 128% during the 2024–25 selling season, while in-shell exports reached 79,696 metric tons^{[2]Source: Almond Board of Australia, “Unprecedented Sales Year for Australian Almonds,” almondboard.org.au.}. The strong export growth reflects rising demand from China's expanding bakery, confectionery, café, and food ingredient industries.

Import-Cost and Tariff Volatility

Import costs and tariff uncertainty continue to constrain China's almond market by raising procurement costs and limiting sourcing flexibility for importers. China's limited domestic almond production makes the market highly dependent on imports, exposing processors to trade policy changes and price volatility. According to the Almond Board of California (2025), United States-origin almonds remain subject to an effective 45% import tariff in China, while Australian almonds continue to benefit from zero-duty access under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. This tariff disparity has shifted sourcing patterns toward Australia and increased cost pressures across China's almond supply chain.

Climate-Sensitive Domestic Production in Xinjiang

Climate-sensitive domestic production affects the China almond market by creating supply uncertainty and increasing dependence on imports. Almond orchards remain highly vulnerable to spring sandstorms, frost, and cold winter temperatures, which reduce pollination and lower yields. According to Produce Report China (2025), China's almond production is estimated at 22,000 metric tons in MY 2025/26, down 8% from the previous season, following spring sandstorms that disrupted pollination in Xinjiang^{[3]Source: Jing Zang, "China's Macadamia and Pecan Production Set To Surge in 2025/26," Produce Report.}. This weather-induced decline highlights the limited resilience of domestic production and reinforces the market's reliance on imported almonds to meet growing industrial and consumer demand.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Geography Analysis

Australia has become the primary external supplier of almonds to China due to reliable production, stable logistics, and preferential market access under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. Australian exporters supply almonds for snack foods, bakery, confectionery, dairy alternatives, and food ingredient applications. This competitive advantage has encouraged Chinese importers and food manufacturers to strengthen long-term procurement relationships while reducing sourcing risks associated with changing global trade conditions. Consistent quality standards and efficient shipping routes continue to reinforce Australia's position in China's almond import supply chain.

The United States remains an important global almond producer, though its competitiveness in China has declined due to higher import duties and shifting procurement strategies. Chinese buyers are increasingly diversifying sourcing across Australia, the United States, and Spain to improve supply security and maintain year-round product availability. Imported almonds primarily enter through major coastal ports before being distributed to food manufacturers, retailers, and e-commerce channels across key consumption centers. Xinjiang remains China's principal domestic production region, although most locally produced almonds are consumed within the province rather than distributed nationwide.

Domestic production remains insufficient to meet China's growing almond demand, making imports essential to maintaining a stable year-round supply. Multiple sourcing origins help reduce procurement risks, although imported almonds continue to dominate industrial applications. According to the Almond Board of Australia (2025), exports increased by 35% year-over-year during the 2024–25 March–February selling season, contributing to Australia's record almond sales performance. The continued expansion of export shipments reflects China's importance as a destination within Australia's broader almond export strategy.