Autonomous Train Market Size
| Study Period | 2019 - 2029 |
| Market Size (2024) | USD 9.25 Billion |
| Market Size (2029) | USD 12.24 Billion |
| CAGR (2024 - 2029) | 5.78 % |
| Fastest Growing Market | Asia-Pacific |
| Largest Market | Asia-Pacific |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order |
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Autonomous Train Market Analysis
The Autonomous Train Market size is estimated at USD 9.25 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 12.24 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 5.78% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
Over the long term, growing electrification in the transportation sector will likely provide major growth for the autonomous train market. The introduction of the Internet of Things (IoT) in transportation is a major driver for the autonomous train market.
- In March 2023, the SNCF, French national railway, with industry partners, announced the launch of two autonomous trains with integrated technologies, such as artificial intelligence.
- The market’s growth is also attributed to other factors, including the government's focus on increasing railway connectivity and increased focus on replacing older rolling stock with advanced, new-generation rolling stocks.
Economies across the world are investing heavily in railway infrastructure development. Government bodies of several countries worldwide have invested heavily to expand their railway connectivity to cater to growing freight and passenger transportation requirements. For instance, at the end of 2023, the total length of railway tracks in China was 159 thousand km, an increase from 155 thousand km at the end of 2022.
Major governments across developed and developing countries, including China, the United States, and Japan, are investing in connected mobility, which may provide significant growth opportunities for the autonomous train market. Asia-Pacific and North America are expected to dominate the autonomous train market during the forecast period. Asia-Pacific has one of the largest rail networks in the world and is expected to show major growth with upcoming projects in the market. For example,
- In January 2024, CRRC announced its plans to introduce the autonomous train to Indonesia, which is planned to be exhibited at the IKN in July 2024. The Indonesian government has been in talks with China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) to use a set of its autonomous trains for Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara or the IKN.
Considering such factors, the market is expected to witness exponential growth in the future.
Autonomous Train Market Trends
Metro/Monorail is Dominating the Autonomous Train Market
Metro/monorail is dominating the autonomous train market due to the increasing demand for an efficient, safe, and affordable mode of transport. The rising penetration of GoA 4 technology in metro rail is likely to boost the market’s growth. GoA 4 is an unattended train operation (UTO) where activities like starting and stopping, operation of doors, and handling of emergencies are fully automated without any on-train staff.
Rail is considered one of the safest modes of land transport and is more attractive to the customer as it offers a much better service to potential passengers and boosts passenger numbers. Consumers worldwide are increasingly demanding safer and more efficient transport, highlighting the importance of adopting advanced technology-based transport, i.e., autonomous trains for commuting purposes.
The growing electrification of metro/monorails due to the enactment of stringent emission norms across the world is also boosting the market’s growth. The introduction of connected metro rail is creating a challenge for the autonomous train market. Rail has been identified as one of the most energy-efficient transport modes, accounting for 8% of global motorized passenger movements and 7% of freight but consuming only 2% of transport energy.
Major industries are jointly working on rail projects to develop advanced technology for autonomous metro rail. Recent developments like testing driverless passenger cars are expected to further propel the market’s growth. For instance,
- In May 2023, Mumbai's first underground metro line in India sought safety approval to begin driverless operations after completing Phase 1 (Bandra Kurla Complex to Aarey) in December 2023. In September 2021, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engineering formed a joint venture with Keolis and Mitsubishi Corp. for a new concession of Dubai Metro and Dubai Tram.
- Similarly, in June 2023, Alstom announced the entry into service of the MRT yellow line in Bangkok, a driverless system. The 30 four-car monorail trains can operate at speeds up to 80km/h.
Thus, such developments are expected to contribute to the market's growth in the coming years.
Asia-Pacific is Expected to Witness Significant Growth During the Forecast Period
Asia-Pacific has one of the largest rail networks globally, which is likely to dominate the autonomous train market worldwide. The growing investment by governments across the region, including China, India, and Japan, for rail infrastructure development may boost the market’s growth in the region.
The growing popularity of metro travel as public transportation in India is also leading to significant growth in the region’s autonomous train market. Therefore, the railway network plays a very significant role in the economic development of countries in Asia-Pacific.
For instance, in March 2024, the Bengaluru Metro Rail Corporation Limited (BMRCL) received the first set of six train coaches, part of the Communication-based Train Control (CBTC) system, for its under-construction yellow line, which is set to undergo various safety tests.
The 18.8 km-long line connecting RV Road and Bommasandra will be the first to have a driverless train.
Asia-Pacific is also characterized by the presence of both developed and developing economies, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh. Major industries are planning to establish rail projects in Asia-Pacific, which is witnessing significant growth in the market. For instance, in January 2024, East Japan Railway (JR East) announced plans to introduce largely automated bullet trains by the mid-2030s, becoming the first company in Japan to implement this labor-saving measure. The company aims to achieve Grade of Automation 3 (GoA3), which means the train can drive itself with a human operator managing the doors and taking over in case of emergencies.
With such developments by major players and their expansion into the country, the development of autonomous trains is expected to increase over the coming years.
Autonomous Train Industry Overview
The autonomous train market is consolidated and led by global and regionally established players. The companies adopt strategies such as new product launches, collaborations, and mergers to sustain their market positions.
- In February 2024, JR East announced its plans to introduce driverless Shinkansen in Japan by the mid-2030s. JR Tokai could launch self-driving bullet trains even earlier, or by 2028. As part of its Change 2027 program, JR East previously conducted a series of driverless Shinkansen test runs in late 2021, using a 12-car E7-series bullet train. JR East allocated an estimated budget of JPY 200 million for the trials.
Some of the major players in the autonomous train market include Bombardier, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Alstom, Thales, and Siemens AG.
Autonomous Train Market Leaders
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Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo)
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Alstom SA
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Thales Group
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Siemens AG
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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
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CRCC Corporation Limited
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Autonomous Train Market News
- April 2024: Danish State Railways (DSB) and railway infrastructure operator Banedanmark signed a contract with leading transport technology manufacturer Siemens Mobility for equipment for autonomous trains totaling USD 288 million. The two entities announced the launch of fully autonomous trains by 2030 as part of an ambitious program to modernize the suburban S-Bane network in Copenhagen.
- July 2023: The newly launched light rail train LRT service in Jakarta, the first autonomous train designed by Indonesian engineers, began operation in 2023. The LRT service has a total of 31 trainsets, with one trainset consisting of six cars that can hold between 740 and 1,480 people. Each car has 174 seats for around 700 people and provides standing spaces for up to 56 people.
Autonomous Train Market Report - Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Study Assumptions
1.2 Scope of the Study
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4. MARKET DYNAMICS
4.1 Market Drivers
4.1.1 Increased Focus on Safety
4.2 Market Restraints
4.2.1 High Initial Investment in the Launch of New Projects
4.3 Industry Attractiveness - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
4.3.1 Threat of New Entrants
4.3.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
4.3.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
4.3.4 Threat of Substitute Products
4.3.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
5. MARKET SEGMENTATION
5.1 By Automation Grade
5.1.1 GoA 1
5.1.2 GoA 2
5.1.3 GoA 3
5.1.4 GoA 4
5.2 By Application
5.2.1 Passenger
5.2.2 Freight
5.3 By Technology
5.3.1 CBTC
5.3.2 ERTMS
5.3.3 ATC
5.3.4 PTC
5.4 By Train Type
5.4.1 Metro/Monorail
5.4.2 Light Rail
5.4.3 High-speed Rail
5.5 By Geography
5.5.1 North America
5.5.2 Europe
5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
5.5.4 Rest of the World
6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
6.1 Vendor Market Share**
6.2 Company Profiles*
6.2.1 Siemens AG
6.2.2 Alstom SA
6.2.3 Thales Group
6.2.4 Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo STS)
6.2.5 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd
6.2.6 Kawasaki Heavy Industries
6.2.7 Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF)
6.2.8 CRRC Corporation Limited
6.2.9 Wabtec Corporation
6.2.10 Ingeteam Corporation SA
7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE TRENDS
7.1 Expansion of Autonomous Train Networks
7.2 Integration of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)
7.3 Development of Hyperloop and Maglev Technologies
7.4 Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
Autonomous Train Industry Segmentation
An autonomous train is a driverless train that operates without human intervention. Equipped with advanced technology, such as AI and sensors, it navigates, controls speed, and makes decisions on its own. Benefits include improved efficiency, safety, and capacity. However, safety standards and testing are crucial for public integration.
The autonomous train market is segmented by automation grade, application, technology, train type, and geography. By automation grade, the market is segmented by GoA 1, GoA 2, GoA 3, and GoA 4. By application, the market is segmented by passenger and freight. By technology, the market is segmented by CBTC, ERTMS, ATC, and PTC. By train type, the market is segmented into metro/monorail, light rail, and high-speed rail. By geography, the market is segmented by North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Rest of the World.
The report covers the market size in value (USD) for all the above segments.
| By Automation Grade | |
| GoA 1 | |
| GoA 2 | |
| GoA 3 | |
| GoA 4 |
| By Application | |
| Passenger | |
| Freight |
| By Technology | |
| CBTC | |
| ERTMS | |
| ATC | |
| PTC |
| By Train Type | |
| Metro/Monorail | |
| Light Rail | |
| High-speed Rail |
| By Geography | |
| North America | |
| Europe | |
| Asia-Pacific | |
| Rest of the World |
Autonomous Train Market Research FAQs
How big is the Autonomous Train Market?
The Autonomous Train Market size is expected to reach USD 9.25 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 5.78% to reach USD 12.24 billion by 2029.
What is the current Autonomous Train Market size?
In 2024, the Autonomous Train Market size is expected to reach USD 9.25 billion.
Who are the key players in Autonomous Train Market?
Hitachi Rail STS (Ansaldo), Alstom SA, Thales Group, Siemens AG, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd and CRCC Corporation Limited are the major companies operating in the Autonomous Train Market.
Which is the fastest growing region in Autonomous Train Market?
Asia-Pacific is estimated to grow at the highest CAGR over the forecast period (2024-2029).
Which region has the biggest share in Autonomous Train Market?
In 2024, the Asia-Pacific accounts for the largest market share in Autonomous Train Market.
What years does this Autonomous Train Market cover, and what was the market size in 2023?
In 2023, the Autonomous Train Market size was estimated at USD 8.72 billion. The report covers the Autonomous Train Market historical market size for years: 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The report also forecasts the Autonomous Train Market size for years: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029.
Autonomous Train Industry Report
The Autonomous Train Market Report provides a comprehensive industry analysis, focusing on various aspects such as market share, market size, and market growth. The report is segmented by automation grade, application, technology, train type, and geography, offering a detailed market overview. It includes an industry overview and market forecast, providing insights into the market trends and market outlook.
The report highlights the market leaders and their contributions to the industry growth. It also includes market segmentation and market value, giving a clear picture of the market dynamics. The industry reports offer valuable industry information and industry statistics, helping stakeholders understand the market better.
The market analysis is supported by industry research and market data, ensuring accurate market predictions. The report also includes a market review and industry sales statistics, providing a holistic view of the market. The report example and report PDF are available for further reference, offering detailed insights into the industry size and growth rate.
Overall, the Autonomous Train Market Report is a crucial resource for research companies and industry stakeholders, providing an in-depth understanding of the market trends and industry outlook. The report's detailed analysis and comprehensive data make it an essential tool for making informed business decisions.
