Australia Oilseed Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Australia Oilseed Market size is projected to expand from USD 2.48 billion in 2025 and USD 3.55 billion in 2026 to USD 4.5 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 5.72% between 2026 to 2031. Demand for edible oils, animal feed ingredients, and renewable fuel feedstocks supports the Australia oilseeds market. The Australian Government's encouragement of domestic low-carbon liquid fuel production has changed the investment case for local oilseed crushing. A larger domestic crushing base can supply oil to fuel and food users while making more protein meal available to livestock producers. Record canola output in 2025 to 2026 also improved the supply base for processors and exporters. At the same time, canola remains the dominant oilseed crop, with smaller contributions from sunflower, soybeans, and cottonseed. Rainfall risks, herbicide resistance, and high transport costs will continue to limit the pace of expansion in the Australia oilseeds market. Export demand, particularly from key Asian markets, remains an important driver for Australian oilseed producers and traders.
Key Report Takeaways
- By oilseed type, rapeseed (canola) was the largest segment and held 65.7% of the Australia oilseeds market share in 2025, while soybean is the fastest-growing segment and is forecast to grow at a 7.2% CAGR through 2031.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
Australia Oilseed Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis*
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising demand for canola oil in food and feed | +1.4% | National, with concentration in Victoria and New South Wales processing corridors | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Expanding export demand and trade access | +1.2% | National, with Western Australia most exposed to Asia Pacific and European trade flows | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Renewable diesel and biofuel feedstock demand | +1.3% | National, with Western Australia and Queensland leading project activity | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Yield gains from improved genetics and precision agronomy | +0.7% | National grain belt, including Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Regional crush capacity expansion | +0.6% | Western Australia and eastern Australia | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Premium demand for identity-preserved and high-oleic oilseeds | +0.5% | Victoria and New South Wales, with demand from Japan, South Korea, and domestic quick service restaurants | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Demand for Canola Oil in Food and Feed
Canola oil has a fatty acid profile that supports its use in Australian food manufacturing and restaurant frying. It is high in monounsaturated fat, low in saturated fat, and free of trans fat. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences reported an average Australian canola price of USD 507 (AUD 760) per metric ton in 2025 to 2026, supported in part by demand for non-genetically modified and high oleic products[1]Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, “Agricultural Commodities Report March 2026,” agriculture.gov.au. GrainCorp Limited and Nuseed Australia developed the Monola high oleic canola program, which supplies identity-preserved oil to quick-service restaurant customers. Higher crush volumes would also increase the availability of local canola meal for animal nutrition manufacturers. This combination of oil and meal revenue supports further canola planting within the Australia oilseeds market.
Expanding Export Demand and Trade Access
Export demand remains important to the Australia oilseeds market because domestic use does not absorb all canola production. The European Union accounted for 66% of Australian canola exports in the marketing year 2024 to 2025, and Belgium and Germany purchased a combined 2.4 million metric tons. Australian non genetically modified canola meets the traceability and carbon intensity requirements that support European renewable fuel demand. China imposed a 75.8% tariff on Canadian canola in 2025, while Australia continued structured trial shipments to China through 2025 and 2026. The United Arab Emirates provides access to Middle Eastern and South Asian buyers, and Japan remains an important destination for premium food oils. A broader customer base can reduce the Australia oilseeds market's exposure to changes in a single export program.
Renewable Diesel and Biofuel Feedstock Demand
Government support for low-carbon liquid fuels is creating a structural driver of demand for canola, Australia's largest oilseed crop. In September 2025, the Australian Government announced AUD 1.1 billion (USD 735 million) in funding under the Cleaner Fuels Program to accelerate domestic production of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and other low-carbon liquid fuels[2]Source: Reuters, "Australia promises USD 735 million to launch biofuel industry", Reuters, reuters.com.. This policy is projected to increase domestic demand for vegetable oil feedstocks, particularly canola oil, which is widely used in renewable fuel production. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia currently exports 6–7 million metric tons of canola annually, with around 70% exported as whole seed for overseas crushing, highlighting significant opportunities to expand domestic value addition. GrainCorp Limited is evaluating an expansion of its oilseed crushing capacity by up to 1 million metric tons annually to supply Australian-grown canola oil, reinforcing investment across the domestic oilseed value chain and supporting higher demand for canola production.
Yield Gains from Improved Genetics and Precision Agronomy
New genetics and improved crop management are helping stabilize canola yields across the Australia oilseeds market. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation and Grains Research and Development Corporation developed a Crop Flowering Calculator for 125 locations in the northern, southern, and western grain belt in 2024. The tool helps growers match sowing dates and cultivar flowering windows with seasonal conditions. Victoria recorded a mean canola yield of 2.43 metric ton per hectare in 2025 to 2026. Western Australia produced a record 4.25 million metric ton of canola in the same season. These outcomes show that commercial cultivars and on farm practices are improving production capacity in major growing areas.
Restraints Impact Analysis*
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weather variability and drought exposure | -1.30% | National, with South Australia and Western Australia most exposed and eastern zones affected by climate cycles | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Global oilseed price and trade volatility | -0.80% | Global, with direct effects on farmgate canola prices and crushing margins | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Herbicide resistance and crop-rotation constraints | -0.60% | National, especially New South Wales and Victoria, with emerging pressure in Western Australia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Port, storage, and domestic crush bottlenecks | -0.50% | National, especially East Coast and Western Australian export networks | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Weather Variability and Drought Exposure
Rainfall variability remains the main supply risk for the Australia oilseeds market. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences projected below average autumn rainfall across much of Australia in 2026. A late dry period and reduced irrigation water availability in New South Wales and Queensland cut planted cotton area and yields in MY 2025/26. USDA/FAS and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast cottonseed production to decline substantially to about 1.08 million tons, with the reduction attributed to lower irrigation water and weaker cotton prices[3]Source: United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, “Australia Oilseeds and Products Annual,” fas.usda.gov. Sunflower and safflower crops are particularly exposed because they are often planted on lower priority land. Climate pressure can therefore affect both large and smaller oilseed crops.
Global Oilseed Price and Trade Volatility
Global price conditions can affect returns across the Australia oilseeds market even when domestic demand is strong. Higher diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs linked to developments in the Middle East conflict contributed to a projected 9% fall in Australian canola output for 2026 to 2027, to 7 million metric tons. Record global grain and oilseed production in 2025 to 2026 put downward pressure on international canola prices. Australian non genetically modified canola has a price premium over the Canadian genetically modified product. Changes to European renewable fuel rules or failures in segregation systems could reduce that premium. The uncertainty makes long-term capital planning for crushing projects more difficult.
*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.
Segment Analysis
By Oilseed Type: Canola Is the Largest Segment and Soybean Is the Fastest Segment
Rapeseed (canola) was the largest segment and held 65.7% of the Australia oilseeds market share in 2025. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), National canola production reached 7.68 million metric tons in 2025 to 2026, the 2nd highest result on record, while Western Australia produced 4.25 million metric tons and Victoria achieved a record mean yield of 2.43 metric tons per hectare. The European Union was the leading export destination, and its renewable fuel sector gives Australian canola a demand base beyond food use. Cottonseed was the 2nd-largest oilseed by production volume, representing 30% of national output, although limited irrigation water availability reduced production. Sunflower seed is concentrated in Queensland and northern New South Wales, while safflower serves smaller identity-preserved oil applications.
Soybean is the fastest-growing segment, and its Australia oilseeds market size is forecast to grow at a 7.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Australian soybean output reached 70,000 metric tons in the marketing year 2024 to 2025, and planted area reached 26,000 hectares, compared with a 5-year average of 20,000 hectares. Growth is centered in Queensland and northern New South Wales, where heat-tolerant varieties can expand the viable summer cropping area. Local food and beverage manufacturers and aquaculture feed formulators can use soybean and soybean meal, while rotations with cotton and grain sorghum can support adoption. A biofuel certificate framework that includes soybean oil could add a new source of demand in areas where canola is less suitable.
Geography Analysis
Western Australia was the largest producing region for canola and a major contributor to the Australia oilseeds market size in 2026. The state produced 4.25 million metric tons of canola in 2025 to 2026, while Co-operative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH Group) received 24.2 million metric tons of grain in its largest harvest intake on record. The Kwinana, Albany, Esperance, and Geraldton corridors handle much of the state's oilseed exports, and Co-operative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH Group) outturned a record 2.5 million metric tons in January 2026. The state's proximity to Asian and Middle Eastern markets provides a freight advantage over eastern ports. Project Crux at East Rockingham could direct more seed to domestic oil and meal processing.
Eastern Australia has a more varied oilseed mix and a much of the domestic edible oil processing base. According to the USDA, New South Wales produces most of the cottonseed, and national output was 1.13 million metric tons in the marketing year 2025 to 2026, while Victoria recorded a mean canola yield of 2.43 metric tons per hectare. South Australia produced 504,000 metric tons of canola, a 56% increase from the previous season. GrainCorp Limited provides eastern aggregation through its receival sites and port network. Queensland remains the principal region for soybeans and sunflowers, although water availability affects irrigation-dependent output in New South Wales and Queensland.
The European Union was the largest export destination Australian canola exports in the marketing year 2024 to 2025. Japan requires segregation and traceability for premium food use, while China offers a further outlet as bilateral trial shipments progress. The United Arab Emirates redistributes oilseeds across the Middle East and South Asia, with Pakistan and Bangladesh as additional destinations for food oil. More Asian sales would reduce the Australia oilseeds market's dependence on European renewable fuel rules.
Competitive Landscape
The Australia oilseeds market is handling infrastructure and broader competition among commodity traders. GrainCorp Limited has more than 180 grain receival sites and 7 bulk export port terminals on the East Coast, while Co-operative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH Group) is the leading grower-owned logistics cooperative in Western Australia and received 24.2 million metric tons in the 2025 to 2026 harvest. GrainCorp Limited signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ampol Limited and IFM Investors to consider crushing capacity for Lytton Refinery. Cargill, Incorporated, and Co-operative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH Group) are progressing Project Crux in Western Australia. These investments show that storage operators are seeking revenue from processing as well as handling.
Bunge Global SA completed its USD 8.2 billion merger with Viterra Limited in July 2025, adding Viterra Limited's Australian origination assets to its global processing and trading platform. The transaction increases competition for grower supply across eastern and western producing areas. Cargill, Incorporated, is a major buyer and processor with a role in domestic assets and Project Crux. International Limited and Wilmar International Limited are demand-side buyers linked to China and Southeast Asia. Their relevance to Australian producers depends on trade access and buyer demand.
Australia has less than 2 million metric tons of annual crushing capacity, compared with 7 to 8 million metric tons of canola output in strong seasons. Cargill's proposed Project Crux facility in Kwinana, the Australian Canola Oils project near Albany, and Riverina Oils and BioEnergy Pty Ltd's proposed Bomen storage expansion from 27,000 to 60,000 metric tons all seek to close this processing and storage gap. Sustainability documentation and traceability can differentiate crushers competing for renewable fuel contracts. No company shares were provided, so the Australia oilseeds market cannot be classified as highly concentrated by ownership.
Recent Industry Developments
- May 2026: Cargill, Incorporated and Co-operative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH Group) filed public consultation documents confirming their joint venture for Project Crux, a USD 500 million canola crush plant at East Rockingham, Western Australia, targeting 1.1 million metric ton of annual seed oil production capacity and potentially supplying BP plc's proposed sustainable aviation fuel plant at Kwinana.
- April 2026: The Queensland Government committed USD 18 million (AUD 25 million ) to the 1st stage of Ampol Limited's Lytton Refinery renewable diesel project, enabling initial production of up to 20 million liters annually from tallow and canola oil feedstocks, with a 2nd stage designed to scale to 750 million liters of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
- July 2025: Bunge Global SA completed its USD 34 billion merger with Viterra Limited, creating an agribusiness entity with 125 crushing and refining facilities, 55 port terminals, and over 350 storage facilities. In Australia, Viterra's assets have been rebranded as Bunge Australia, with Bunge Operations Pty Ltd recognized as a port terminal service provider at Port Adelaide, supporting grain and oilseed exports to Asian and European markets, which directly impacts the Australia Oilseeds Market.
Australia Oilseed Market Report Scope
An oilseed is a seed grown primarily for the oil it contains, which is extracted for use in food, animal feed, and industrial products. The Australia Oilseeds Market Report Segments the Industry Into Oilseed Type (Rapeseed (Canola), Cotton Seed, and More). The Report Includes Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume), Import Analysis (Value and Volume), Export Analysis (Value and Volume), Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast, and More. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Metric Tons).
By Oilseed Type
| Rapeseed (Canola) | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | ||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Trade Analysis (Value and Volume) | Import Market Analysis | |
| Export Market Analysis | ||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | ||
| Seasonality Analysis | ||
| Cottonseed | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | ||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Import Market Analysis | ||
| Export Market Analysis | ||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | ||
| Seasonality Analysis | ||
| Soybean | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | ||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Import Market Analysis | ||
| Export Market Analysis | ||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | ||
| Seasonality Analysis | ||
| Sunflower Seed | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | ||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Import Market Analysis | ||
| Export Market Analysis | ||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | ||
| Seasonality Analysis | ||
| Safflower Seed | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | ||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Import Market Analysis | ||
| Export Market Analysis | ||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | ||
| Seasonality Analysis | ||
| By Oilseed Type | Rapeseed (Canola) | Production Analysis | Production Volume |
| Area Harvested and Yield | |||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |||
| Trade Analysis (Value and Volume) | Import Market Analysis | ||
| Export Market Analysis | |||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | |||
| Seasonality Analysis | |||
| Cottonseed | Production Analysis | Production Volume | |
| Area Harvested and Yield | |||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |||
| Import Market Analysis | |||
| Export Market Analysis | |||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | |||
| Seasonality Analysis | |||
| Soybean | Production Analysis | Production Volume | |
| Area Harvested and Yield | |||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |||
| Import Market Analysis | |||
| Export Market Analysis | |||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | |||
| Seasonality Analysis | |||
| Sunflower Seed | Production Analysis | Production Volume | |
| Area Harvested and Yield | |||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |||
| Import Market Analysis | |||
| Export Market Analysis | |||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | |||
| Seasonality Analysis | |||
| Safflower Seed | Production Analysis | Production Volume | |
| Area Harvested and Yield | |||
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |||
| Import Market Analysis | |||
| Export Market Analysis | |||
| Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast | |||
| Seasonality Analysis | |||
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the projected value of the Australia oilseeds market by 2031?
The Australia oilseeds market is forecast to reach USD 4.5 billion by 2031, rising from USD 2.48 billion in 2026 at a 5.72% CAGR.
Which oilseed has the largest share in Australia?
Rapeseed, also called canola, was the largest oilseed type and held 65.7% of value in 2025.
Which oilseed is growing fastest in Australia?
Soybean is the fastest oilseed type and is projected to expand at a 7.2% CAGR from 2026 to 2031.
Why is canola important for renewable fuels in Australia?
Canola oil can supply renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel projects, supported by USD 735 million (AUD 1.1 billion) in Australian Government funding for low carbon liquid fuels.
What are the main risks to Australian oilseed production?
Rainfall deficits, lower irrigation water availability, herbicide resistance, global price volatility, and logistics constraints can limit output and grower returns.
Where is most Australian canola produced?
Western Australia is the largest producing region, with 4.25 million metric ton of canola output in 2025 to 2026.
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