Brazil Agriculture Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Brazil Agriculture Market Trends and Insights

Rising Global Demand for Brazilian Soybeans

Chinese feed manufacturers imported 112 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans in 2024, accounting for 77% of Brazil’s total soybean exports and nearly half of China’s crushing requirements ^{[1]Source: United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, “Brazil Soybean Exports to China Hit Record 112 Million Tons in 2024,” fas.usda.gov}. Favorable freight rates from northern arc ports and competitive farmgate prices, influenced by an 8% depreciation of the Brazilian Real, further widened Brazil’s price advantage over shipments from the United States Gulf. The National Supply Company forecasts soybean production at 177 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season, supported by a 4% expansion in cultivation area in MATOPIBA and the adoption of drought-tolerant varieties developed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. European Union buyers remain a premium market for deforestation-free soybeans that meet the traceability standards outlined in the European Union Deforestation Regulation. Meanwhile, Vietnam and Thailand increased imports by 18% in 2024 to secure protein meal for the aquaculture and poultry industries. These structural factors provide a stable foundation for export volumes, even during periods of lower prices.

Expansion of Double-Cropping Systems

Safrinha corn achieved a record production of 115.6 million metric tons in 2024, accounting for 92% of the total corn output. This was driven by the replanting of nearly all soybean land in Mato Grosso and Goiás with early-maturing hybrids that utilize residual soil moisture^{[2]Source: National Supply Company, “Acompanhamento da Safra Brasileira de Grãos 2024-25,” conab.gov.br}. This practice has reduced the fallow period from six months to nearly zero, effectively doubling land-use efficiency without causing additional deforestation. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 18 million hectares are currently under double cropping, with a target to expand this to 25 million hectares by 2030. Seed companies have introduced 90-day corn hybrids and high-oleic soybeans designed for tighter planting schedules, while precision planters enhance spacing accuracy and boost yields. Frost risk in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul remains a challenge, particularly when late rains delay the soybean harvest. Crop insurance and forward contracts are increasingly being used to help farmers secure margins despite weather-related uncertainties.

Preferential Rural Credit Programs

The Plano Safra 2024-25 increased subsidized lending to BRL 475.5 billion (USD 88.2 billion), with interest rates ranging from 4% to 8%, thereby protecting growers from commercial rates exceeding 12%. During the first half of the crop year, disbursements reached BRL 320 billion (USD 59.4 billion), facilitating significant pre-purchases of fertilizer as prices declined by 24% from their 2022 peak. The Brazilian Development Bank has allocated an additional BRL 25 billion (USD 4.6 billion) to support investments in irrigation pivots, grain storage facilities, and variable-rate machinery, with a focus on MATOPIBA, where storage capacity remains insufficient. Cooperatives have integrated these credit lines with input packages and deferred repayment options, ensuring planting areas are maintained even during periods of price volatility. This approach mitigates sudden reductions in acreage and helps stabilize agricultural output in Brazil across different market cycles.

Corn-Ethanol Build-Out Boosting Domestic Grain Pull

In Brazil, corn ethanol production differs from that of other countries due to its reliance on second-season corn, which accounts for approximately 99% of the corn produced in the Center-South region. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (UNICA), during the 2024/2025 harvest season, the corn ethanol sector processed 6.5 million metric tons of corn, producing 8.2 billion liters of ethanol. Projections from the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) indicate that this volume could increase to 14 billion liters by 2033. This growth is supported by RenovaBio carbon-intensity credits and increased gasoline blending mandates^{[3]Source: Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, “Corn Ethanol Capacity Forecast,” unica.com.br}. Mato Grosso accounts for 60% of the ethanol mills, leveraging its surplus safrinha corn for on-site processing, which offsets logistical challenges. Each additional billion liters of ethanol production utilizes approximately 700,000 metric tons of corn, reducing exportable surpluses and supporting domestic basis levels. Archer Daniels Midland Company has committed USD 60 million to a new mill, which is projected to commence operations in 2026. The feed coproduct, distillers dried grains with solubles, is contributing to an 8% reduction in poultry feed costs, creating value across the supply chain.

Commodity Price Volatility and Trade-War Exposure

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade declined by 25% in 2024, reducing Brazilian farm margins by 30%, as only 40% of the crop was forward-sold at the time of planting. Corn prices fluctuated between USD 4.20 and USD 5.80 per bushel, creating uncertainty in revenue projections. While currency depreciation provided partial relief, it was insufficient to recover the profitability levels of the previous cycle. Trade disputes between the United States and China have the potential to shift Brazil’s export premiums by USD 25 per metric ton in either direction with minimal warning. In response, cooperatives have introduced minimum-price contracts to transfer risk to aggregators. This approach depletes working capital and slows investments in storage and logistics infrastructure.

Water-Use Conflicts in MATOPIBA Regions

The National Water Agency projects that 30% to 40% of irrigation demand in the MATOPIBA region could remain unmet between 2025 and 2040 without the development of new reservoirs, pipelines, and on-farm water harvesting systems. The expansion of soy and cotton cultivation has intensified competition for water resources with household consumption and hydropower reservoirs. During drought years, authorities often impose pumping bans, which can reduce agricultural yields by as much as 15%. The Sustainable Agriculture Plan has allocated BRL 10 billion (USD 1.9 billion) for low-pressure pivots and drip irrigation systems, which can reduce water usage by up to one-third. Delays in environmental licensing have hindered the implementation of these projects. Long-term solutions are focused on watershed governance frameworks, which are still under negotiation among state agencies and grower associations.

Segment Analysis

By Commodity Type: Cereals and Grains Anchor Volume While Oilseeds and Pulses Drive Value

Cereals and grains accounted for 42.3% of Brazil's agriculture market share in 2025, driven primarily by corn, which fulfilled both feed demand and fuel blending requirements. Ethanol mills consumed 10 million metric tons of corn in 2024. Safrinha corn production reached 115.6 million metric tons, enabling exports of 45 million metric tons, positioning Brazil as the second-largest global supplier after the United States. Wheat production in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul totaled 8.5 million metric tons, and domestic milling shortfalls necessitated the import of 6 million metric tons from Argentina. Rice production reached 10.6 million metric tons in irrigated paddies in Rio Grande do Sul, catering to domestic consumption but rarely entering export markets. Yield improvements through precision fertilizer application and hybrid seeds are projected to increase corn productivity by 2.3% annually, ensuring cereals remain a critical component of Brazil's agriculture market growth through 2031.

Oilseeds and pulses represent the fastest-growing segment, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% through 2031. Brazil is projected to increase soybean production from 169 million metric tons in the 2024-25 season to an estimated 177 million metric tons in the following season. Domestic crushing facilities operated at 90% capacity in 2024, processing 53.5 million metric tons of soybeans into meal and oil to meet feed and biodiesel requirements. The biodiesel blending mandate increased from B14 in 2024 to B15 in 2025, necessitating an additional 1.2 million metric tons of soybean oil. This has led processors in Paraná and Mato Grosso to optimize plant operations. The market size for soybean derivatives is expanding both at the production level and within the value-added chain. Collectively, these factors position oilseeds as the largest contributor to future value growth in Brazil's agriculture market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

In 2024, the Central-West region accounted for 48% of Brazil's national grain and oilseed output, driven by Mato Grosso's production of 75 million metric tons of soybeans and corn. Rail and barge corridors directed freight northward to Itaituba and Santarém, reducing transportation costs by USD 20 per metric ton compared to the Santos route. Rising land prices and stagnating yield improvements have prompted producers to explore new acreage in the MATOPIBA frontier. Land costs in this region are 50% lower than in the Central-West, and soybean cultivation expanded by 2.5 million hectares between 2020 and 2024. Water scarcity remains a significant challenge, emphasizing the importance of effective irrigation and watershed management to fully realize the region's agricultural potential in Brazil.

The South produced 52 million metric tons of grains in 2024, with strong performance in winter wheat and irrigated rice. Soybean yields in the region were 12% higher than the national average, supported by consistent rainfall and fertile soils. Ports at Paranaguá and Rio Grande managed 60% of the region's shipments, though aging equipment has led to prolonged vessel delays. Coamo's investment in a dedicated terminal at Paranaguá reduced freight costs for its members by USD 10 per metric ton. Meanwhile, the Southeast, encompassing São Paulo and Minas Gerais, produced 360 million metric tons of sugarcane, 2.1 million metric tons of coffee, and 12 million metric tons of oranges in 2024. The region benefits from dense processing clusters and proximity to urban demand centers, which strengthen supply chains and enhance value addition, contributing to the overall growth of Brazil's agricultural market beyond raw commodity production.

The North produced 8 million metric tons of grains in 2024. Strict enforcement of deforestation limits has constrained farmland expansion, but carbon-credit programs and low-carbon beef protocols have introduced alternative revenue streams. Ports at Miritituba and Santarém handled 15 million metric tons of cargo, utilizing the Tapajós River to reduce freight costs from Mato Grosso by USD 25 per metric ton. However, draft restrictions during dry months continue to limit economies of scale. Dredging initiatives under the Ministry of Infrastructure aim to deepen channels by 2027, addressing these challenges. Combined with regenerative farming incentives, these developments position the North as a strategic yet environmentally sensitive area for growth within Brazil's agricultural market.